I was discussing with a friend and wanted your advise in this.
Question is if to 3bet or call from BB when BU opens and we have QJs.
Case 1:
TAG opens 70% from BU and has an overall fold to 3bet% of 67%.
Equity Win Tie
BU 43.80% 42.37% 1.43% { 70% }
BB 56.20% 54.78% 1.43% { QJs }
If we call we enter flop with .562*6.5bb= 3.65bb EV
If we 3bet and he 4bets AA-QQ/AK and calls with rest then he defends with .33*.70=23.1% range which is a total of 310 combos. Out of which he 4bets 34 combos and calls with 276 combos which should be like
Equity Win Tie
BU 53.11% 50.66% 2.45% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
BB 46.89% 44.44% 2.45% { QJs }
So 67% of the time we win 3.5bb and 30.5% of the time we enter flop with 46.89% equity and 2.5% of the time we fold to 4bet and lose 9 bb.
.67*3.5+.305(18.5*.4689)-9*.0256=4.76bb EV
Case 2:
TAG opens 70% from BU and has a fold to 3bet% of 94%.
Lets say he 4bets AA-QQ/AK and calls JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo and folds rest. So he defends 5.88% and folds 94.12%
If we call again we have the same If we call we enter flop with .562*6.5bb= 3.65bb EV
If we 3bet we enter flop with
Equity Win Tie
SB 66.00% 65.18% 0.81% { JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
BB 34.00% 33.19% 0.81% { QJs }
0.9412*3.5+0.0332*(18.5*0.34)-9*0.0256=3.27bb EV
Case 3:
He even folds KQ to a preflop 3bet.
Same equity again if we call.
If we 3bet and get called
Equity Win Tie
BU 63.65% 63.07% 0.58% { JJ-TT, AQs, AQo }
BB 36.35% 35.77% 0.58% { QJs }
So overall value fo 3bet now is
0.9532*3.5+0.0211*(18.5*0.3635)-9*0.0256=3.25bb EV
So does it mean that the tighter the opponent is with defending 3bets, the better it is for us to call and not 3bet?
When he was defending 33% of his 3bets it was more profitable for us to 3bet and with him defending <5% we are doing worse by 3betting than calling.
Kind of a paradox we find ourselves in.
