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NL50 SH Fh facing river bet

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PickoCro
Joined: 14.04.2009

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU (Hero)$50.00:///////;SB$62.89:///////;BB$70.68:///////;MP3$31.06:///////;CO$50.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7:c, 7:d.
MP3 folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($3.75) 9:c, T:s, 9:d (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($3.75) 7:s (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $5.00, Hero calls $2.50.

River: ($13.75) K:h (2 players)
CO bets $9.80

Villain is a 23/21 playing reggy player (played 120 hands with him so i think stats are uninportant, other than the fact that i think he s an okay/bad reg, and i had an unconfirmed betsizing tell on him that he bets smallish when he is bluffing)

The question is do you just call or shove the river? His line looks pretty strong and his river bet doesn t look like a bluff, so should i shove here or just call? At the time the hand was played i was almost positive he might have 910. I think he d cbet all other nines other than 910, and just seems to me that he thought he was super strong otf and decided to check twice, and if he s bluffing his raise sizing doesnt make much sense since i won t fold almost anything to a minraise.

Also when bad players make these turn raises as a bluff in my experience they usually just check river, or make bigger raises on turn and a bigger than half pot bet otr... His line just doesn t look like a bluff or trips to me but does look like a fh.

If he s bluffing he s not calling anyway, but if he has A9 or 89 and i just flat i d kill myself, so what do you do otr?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

I think it's a call. I do agree that he reps T9/99/TT (5 combos) so the question is whether he does this with enough overpairs or not. I doubt he stacks off with enough worse hands so calling is probably better, provided he's solid.

Thanks.


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