trips fold part2

Hey silelunu!

Very very nice tree you equilated there! Just a few hints!
How do you know how much he would bet on turn/river! Imo thats the a tricky part!

if you want to herofold on the flop imo its just fine! but your calculation can of course never be correct if we don't have enough reads about our opponent

my internet is down in 1 min
I'll post again later

I don't have many reads on him. Only 20 hands, nothing special.

Your point is valid.

I think that we can consider the amount of bets on the turn and river as an average for an unknown player. Of course this can vary but since we have no reads, we don;t know what bigger sized bets would mean.

So we call the flop but the turn can;t bring us anything new:
-the board can;t change drastically,
-the sizing don't tell us much

Which i interpret in this way:
since no new information will come from turn and river play, we will have to make our decision on the flop considering the amount of information available.
We will not have much to help us re evaluate the turn.

well there are some cards that def. help us! for example a 3 basically splits us against all other 9x hands (we're just beat by 33s, which is unrealistic). villain could also raise hands like 88, 77 in this case sometimes or slowplayed higher pockets... you'll never that that after 20 hands a jx would also help us to improve our hand. We could stack him off then in almost all cases against overpairs + other 9x hands!

So from stack2pot ratio i would def. call 1 street since you're ip and probably also get a freecard on the turn if villain decides to ch/r again!

Greets,
Tiltberger

I know that the scenarios that you describe are also possible and i adressed this issue partially here:

"...Now, since this is an simplification, how can this result will modify when we include other possibilities?

....

2. sb have bluffs in range (like 77, KJ etc). I think that most of the players at this level are not capable to pure bluff check/3bet here at all . Even those with a bluffing range will probably have a ratio of bluffs/(bluffs+value) pretty low.

Let's quickly say we have 20% capable of this bluff, bluffs are 25% of SB's total range and he will fire multiple streets in 60% of times. If we multiply those numbers we see that a we win a big pot from a spew line only 3% of times. If we aply this 3% to a win of let's say 4000, is only +120 in EV.

So bluffs don't make a big diference here.

3.SB will bet more on the turn and/or river especially with the nuts. This will not improve our results, i think... "

The case when we improve on the turn (or when villain improve) have low probabilities and don't have a major impact on the equation at this effective stacks because we don't have odds to draw in the first place.
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In a nutshell, because there can be so many different cases i tried to simplifie for those cases that are more probable to happen or have the greatest impact on the results.

I think we all do that even if we're not make an equation out of it.

Anyway, thank you for your time, it was a nice discusion (for me at least)

It was a very nice discussion and can still continue! This is a very very interesting hand and you should def. post it in a coaches forum who sometimes gives away free content

its on german communtity - omaha & mtt erlebnisberichte -> palmero92's thread!

The thing is I'm on a world trip and don't have internet all the time to discuss that much here

but!!! if you give him a very small bluffing & overplayingrange of weaker hands its probably not a bad fold!

oh and btw i bet flop bigger -> you want to build a pot to bring it on 3 streets if possible allin on the river!

Greets,
Tiltberger