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Top set OOP on wet

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Mantelo
Joined: 12.05.2009

Opponent is a slightly winning Reg on NL200 26/18/8,2 over 1,3k hands. 3bet BUvCO 13%, call BU 18%, raise cbet 10%, fold to cbet 51%. Notes on him:
5bet jam pre 87s
doesnt cbet 33 on 874; raise Turned set
doesnt cbet TT on 994 3bet pot

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $229.25 (114.6 bb)
UTG: $391 (195.5 bb)
MP: $220.05 (110 bb)
Hero (CO): $198.10 (99.1 bb)
BTN: $225.90 (113 bb)
SB: $432.10 (216.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $5, 2 folds

Flop: ($13) J 4 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

Turn: ($29) A (2 players)
Hero bets $21, BTN raises to $58, Hero raises to $185.10 and is all-in, BTN calls $127.10

He likes to call on BU with many suited hands, so it is very reasonable to put him on flush. Due to his high "Raise cbet" stat, I believe he would raise me with sets on flop, and there are not too many combos of 2 pair (AJ, A4, A2 only). So is it better to only call Turn & decide on the River? Or are You happy to ship it? :f_confused:

River: ($399.20) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$399.20 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: J 4 2 A 2
Hero showed A A and won $396.20 ($198.10 net)
BTN showed 8 T and lost (-$198.10 net)


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3 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi

This is a very clear call. He reps a polarized range that either has u beat or is crushed (u eithrr have 20 or 80% equity vs his flush draws or flushes)

Protection is overrated. Jamming only makes sense if ur playability is gonna be rly poor on 30-40%+ of rivers which is not the case here).

Just calldown.


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

Hey mblm, do you call here something to fold on blanked river without info that hes barreling often?
What would be worst hand that you call turn or river?

regards


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

perhaps AK or AQ with a club. That would make the most sense to b/c T and c/f R


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