[December Marathon] - [jules97] - Headstart on 2014

I thought Koalas made cute sounds!

Best of luck Jules and indeed that is a pretty sweet deal you have with Titan

Gl at the tables, and succes.

Played another 3 or 4k hands. I think after that I should be plat already. Achievement unlocked!
Unfortunately the blogging runbad hit and I had lost all they buyins I won the day before.

I was probably playing a little too loose and maybe value betting a bit too thin. But was pretty unlucky. At least my image should be trashed now after getting called on every bluff and coolered on every valuebet. A reg called me shipping the turn with Q high!

But buy far the most demoralizing was the following hand.
200bb deep with the nuts and a passive fish liking his hand. And... I time out thinking about my betsize. ♠_cry:

My hud apparently covered the timebank icon...

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $84.96
CO: $22.57
Hero (BTN): $97.78
SB: $135.21

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 8♦ 7♥

fold, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.75, fold

Flop: ($2.50, 2 players) 5♦ J♠ 6♥
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($9.50, 2 players) 4♦
SB bets $6.00, fold

Also, since he got that koala. Diesel got one our chickens the day after and not 30min ago an unfortunate young fox chose the wrong week to venture into our yard... He's dead and his mate is now screeching inconsolably just outside the fence.

Getting some more hands in today.

Before I cashed out of pokerstars i traded all my vpps for cash. Had enough for an entry to the $55 Red Spade Open and a a hat!

Still battling in the Red with about 7 bb. 7k/32k folks left. If I win a few more flips might min cash.

Flip #1 won! ♦

While playing the mtt, I 2 tabled nl50 speed with no hud. The player pool is only about 70 players. So I'm pretty familiar with the more troublesome regs. It went pretty well.
I think I may actually play better without a hud. I actually have to stop and think about spots, rather than just go, 'oh, he folds 65% to cbets, bet any 2'.

So it goes down to hand for hand at the bubble. I'm HJ with 3 guys who are holding out for the bubble behind me. I have 4 bb and I get dealt the first playable hand of the day.

AKs... what do you do? I have been nitting it up forever also.

Well... of course I shove, get snap called by the one guy not auto folding with TT. Lose the flip... rofl

But due to however they workout the hand for hand business. I managed to scrape in by about 10 places for a $113 min cash.

Seriously, I don't know how people play MTT's. Especially 10 seated. It's like fold fold fold. Oh now I have 20 bb and can't do shit except hope to win flips. Playing zoom 300bb deep is much more fun!

Congrats on the cash! Didn't bother with the RSO last night cos I was bricking everything else last night on top of other things.

MTTs can be very boring for a lot of the time but I still love them!

I've played some Speed NL50-100 and it was great fun (built up a free bankroll and had 2 BI shots for the lolz) The players are terrible there. You should do fine!

Another few thousand hands today.
Most of the regs are leaving me alone now. I imagine they're thinking,
"this guy is spastic just stay out of his way, value bet him, call down lightly and let him spaz his stacks away." Works for me, even if it may be somewhat accurate...

Here are a couple of interesting hands.

This one he ships the flop and I'm thinking, 'ah fuck, oh well, I gotta go with it.... Come on spades, go spades go... ah fuck, wait, wat? I won?!"

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $85.04
UTG: $50.00
MP: $98.10
CO: $52.38
Hero (BTN): $71.55
SB: $53.05

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A♠ T♠

fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, BB raises to $6.00, fold, Hero calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.75, 2 players) 8♠ Q♠ 7♣
BB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $19.50, BB raises to $79.04 and is all-in, Hero calls $46.05

Turn: ($144.85, 2 players) K♦

River: ($144.85, 2 players) 2♣

This reg thinks I'm spastic. Probably not without reason...

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $66.60
UTG: $63.22
MP: $74.58
CO: $67.59
Hero (BTN): $74.04
SB: $53.83

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 7♠ 7♦

fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB raises to $6.50, fold, CO calls $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

Flop: ($20.00, 3 players) 6♥ 7♣ Q♠
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50, fold

Turn: ($31.00, 2 players) 4♣
SB checks, Hero bets $60.50, SB snapcalls $41.83

River: ($114.66, 2 players) 3♠

Titan offered me $50 and some goldcoins?! if I hit Titanium status by the end of the month (I'll probably hit it tomorrow...). Which is pretty much a formality. But hey, I'm not averse to free money.

It got me thinking. Maybe my playstyle is good for poker rooms?? I'm probably imaging it, but it seems like the average $ per pot always goes up on tables after I join...

Wow... talk about hitting the ground running!

Nice hands mate ♦

A-high is actually very nutty when you think about it further, so first hand is standard. Even that deep

The second one... Well, after the flop I think "spazzing" out on turn should be okay, though this line is usually very unbalanced towards the nuts ♦

Cheers guys

So a reg caught me bluffing a river when I called down 2 streets with an OESD. He then proceeded to pay off 3 rivers in decent sized pots with hands he really should have folded each time.

Thus, "jules97 rule of 3s'. Which is: If caught bluffing by a reg who is capable of adapting, he will call down lighter the next 3 times.

It takes stubbing your toe 3 times to realize that it hurts and you probably should move that box. This is just human nature.

Now if you really fuck them over with something like a 300bb pot, that is different. They won't be calling you down lightly twice more. That is like putting your hand on the hot stove when you are 5 years old. You only do that once! Never, ever again. Therefore if you do this, you can bluff a big pot or 2 against the same guy in the future with a little more fold equity than you would normally have.

Good thinking! I likey!

Played a couple of thousand hands today.

Rivered a Royal Flush deep. What more can you ask? Getting paid would be nice I suppose.
I'm not so happy with how it was played.

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $207.74
UTG: $20.00
MP: $50.00
Hero (CO): $132.79
BTN: $105.15
SB: $44.91

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J♠ A♠

fold, MP raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, BTN raises to $5.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $3.75

Flop: ($12.00, 2 players) 3♠ T♠ 7♥
Hero checks, BTN bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

Turn: ($29.00, 2 players) K♠
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($29.00, 2 players) Q♠
Hero bets $20.30, fold

Oops printed that a bit early. So yeah, the other guy seems an ok reg. I think I would have liked to raise the fop. And as played, check the river. Oh well, will be interesting to see what others think.

I think the 4th spade kills any action from him OTR. You may have been alright if that had been any other Q, I know it kills of the RF but you still have the nuts anyways

Right, so I downloaded the trial of pokersnowie and have been giving it a whirl. I posted in jb's blog yesterday an overview of it.
Here I'm going to use it to anaylyze 1k hands from todays session. It didn't import them all, it seems to have some trouble here.

First things first. It says I played a world class level. So yeah, I must be fucking good.

6 blunders... lets have a look at them

Hand 1

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $47.33
UTG: $57.22
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $53.92
SB: $41.74

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A♦ Q♥

UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BTN raises to $6.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $11.50, BTN raises to $53.92 and is all-in, Hero calls $38.50

Flop: ($102.25, 2 players) 4♥ T♣ A♥

Turn: ($102.25, 2 players) 6♠

River: ($102.25, 2 players) 2♦

Now Snowie thinks it was -4.40 ev to raise here. And then another -4.47 to stack off afterwards.
I think Snowie is probably right. But it's probably not quite as bad, because BTN is a decent reg and MP is a reg that folds too much. So BTN may be getting it in a bit lighter.
Snowie is a flip between raising and calling MP's open. But I think it's a good call because MP fold too much to 3b's and this way we keep his range wider.

Snowie 1 - Jules 0

Hand 2

iPoker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $99.77
SB: $50.25
BB: $61.76
UTG: $124.07
MP: $69.64
CO: $76.92

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 5♥ 5♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.25, 2 players) 7♦ J♦ T♥
BB bets $4.00, Hero raises to $12.00, fold

Snowie thinks I lose 2.83 raising this flop cbet. BB cbets too much and this flop just smashes my calling range so I think it's maringal and probably slightly plus EV to raise. However, I can probably fold this adn pick some pp's with blockers to the straights and a little more equiity, so 88 or 99 would be ok, or 78hh would be better.
Lets call this one a draw.

Snowie 2 - Jules 1

Hand 3

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $50.00
UTG: $69.51
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $65.25
SB: $70.30

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A♦ Q♥

fold, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN raises to $3.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $2.25

Flop: ($7.75, 2 players) 4♦ 5♠ 2♣
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.25, fold

Snowie thinks I shouldn't check fold the flop. He thinks that riasing the flop would be +2.88EV! and calling would be +1.91. I think snowie is probably right. I have no reads on BTN, except after 100 hands he looks like a reg. And x/f looks a bit weak. I do like the x/r line the most, but what turns do I barrel? Broadways and an 8? Hmmm
Lets see what snowie says. Hmm Snowie thinks x/f or barreling any turn is about even. Apart from barrelling an Ace snowie likes, and x/c a queen snowie prefers. Looks good to me.

So lets give this one to snowie

Snowie 3 - Jules 1

Hand 4

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $50.00
UTG: $52.33
Hero (CO): $69.44
BTN: $59.84
SB: $45.50

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K♣ J♥

folder, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, BB raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $9.50, BB raises to $50.00 and is all-in, fold

BB wins $19.25

Snowie thinks 4betting here is -2.78 EV. I think so to. I think this would be good to 4bet IF BB was folding a tad too much to 4bets and/or 3betting a decent amount.
But here's the kicker, I have 400 hands on BB and he's 3b is sitting at 4%. Now granted it's a little higher from BB but I honestly think I shouldn't be 4b KQ here. This was a bad mistake and I knew it straight away afterwards, when I took a second longer to look at his stats. It was towards the end of the session and I was getting tired and lazy.

Snowie 4 - Jules 1

Hand 5

iPoker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $126.77
CO: $69.64
BTN: $56.12
SB: $128.12
BB: $71.64
UTG: $54.02

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q♣ Q♥

UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 7♥ 5♦ 6♥
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.62, UTG calls $2.62

Turn: ($8.99, 2 players) 9♦
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.29, UTG calls $6.29

River: ($21.57, 2 players) 6♠
UTG checks, Hero bets $15.09, UTG calls $15.09

Villain is a reg.
Now snowie thinks checking behind on the river is worth 6.84 more EV. Betting is still plus EV, but not checking behind is a big mistake.
I also agree. Again, straight away afterwards I kicked myself. What do I get value from betting the river? Maybe TT JJ... This was dumb.

Snowie 5 - Jules 1

Finally my Fold BB to steal was 54.76% today. I made a concious effort to try and call more BB's and play postflop OOP. I think it went pretty good. Snowie would played a few more, folding 47.62%. This is an improvement for me, 1stly playing more, and secondly I thought I played them mostly ok. Good job jules!

And so concludes the man v machine.

I just posted these hands on the hand evulation forum. Let's see how our coaches do

well this certainly looks interesting. do you think that it might be worth it?

i'll get my trial once i put in some more volume for this month.

I've only had it trialing for a couple of days, so I'm by no means an expert.
So far it looks promising and worth the money, it's only something like 120$/year and what's that? Something like 20 minutes with a good GTO coach? Where it will do a better job of playing GTO.

I posted all those hands on the evaluation forums. And all the coaches agreed with snowie. But they were pretty obvious mistakes. I do think they serve a similar purpose. To be honest the snowie software is a bit clunky and annoying.

It won't help one play exploitably, which is what half the winrate in poker is all about. But I think it is very useful for the other half of winrate, eliminating very bad mistakes one is making. After every session, you could import your hands into snowie and check out what glaring GTO errors you are making. Very useful and fast, would be even better if the client wasn't POS.

I also think it will be helpful as 'starting point ranges' which one can then adapt based on their opinions of their opponents weaknesses. If there is a fish on the table (6max, full ring) I think snowie would be the weakest reg on the table, if there are no fish on the table, snowie might be the strongest reg on the table. It could very well be the strongest heads up player ever.

I seems that in 6max or more on river situations it may not have enough experience to be as good as it is in the earlier streets. That added together with snowies balanced ranges on the river, which can be very fucking confusing, make me think that it's still best to go over river situations manually even if (yes if, it's not definite) one may be giving up tiny amounts of EV.

There is no snowie for PLO or plans for it... so if things do get bad it might be time to embrace the variance!

Here's what snowie thinks about 6max open raising ranges by position

Open raise sizes recommened by snowie.

Snowie only has 1/2 pot, and pot raise sizes.

		UTG	MP	CUT	BTN	SB
1/2 pot		17.19	22.04	26.25	39.85	49.64	
pot		17.06	21.52	28.07	42.04	53.08

Open Raise Ranges

I made them all pot size, 3.5bb. Except BTN and cutoff I made 1/2 pot, 2.25bb. They don't really differ too much between pot and half pot and the slight differences are fairly intuitive.

UTG

MP

CUT

BTN

SB

First thing I notice is snowie loves suited aces.

Snowie is opening way less on the BTN than most regs, because competent snowies in the blinds win too much if he opens wider.

Snowie also opens very, very wide on the SB, because snowie is competent playing OOP.

I think this is a very big hint as to where huge winrate can be had in todays games. Get real fucking good at playing OOP with wide ranges and there is $$$$$$$$$$$$ to be made.

My next snowie post I'll go over preflop 3b ranges.