NL100 KQo

I agree that the Turn is an extremely good card for you. Any decent player in CO would slow down on this card because it helps your range so much. The majority of your Flop check-calling should comprise hands like KQ-KT, and I suppose you also have some AX in your range. All these hands are never folding and I guess he'll fold out your occasionally passively played draws, and stuff like QQ/JJ which you might have opted to take a c-c line with on the Flop.

So we can conclude that villain's Turn betting range is probably polarized to the flush draws or 66/AK. Even betting a hand like AQ may be a little optimistic unless he thinks you have enough weak AX check-calls in your range. I don't see why AK should 3bet preflop especially given that you are in UTG. Are you opening 17%+? If not I think he should often just play it slowly with AK and not isolate himself against the top of your range. At the same time I think KQ-KJ would often check back the Flop so that makes his range so polarized to draws or boats.

If his range is mostly boats or draws, and given the board pairing he has every reason to bet-fold the Turn with his draws especially when your hand range contains so many KX, and maybe even AA, I think it would be highly optimistic to assume that CO is going to bet-call with enough worse hands to justify a check-raise here. I'll probably check-call, though leading might make sense especially when the turn card brings a second flush draw. I don't think people will ever fold AX to a Turn lead cos of this.

Anyway even if you check-raise the Turn, the River is going to be a clear check and not a bet, based on my previous assumptions. Now you are in absolutely no position to value bet against a range of hearts, spades and boats because the number of hands that beat you outnumber the hands that you beat. So you check, and decide whether he has enough busted heart draws to justify calling.

I think the answer is no especially when you block Q:hX:h hands with your Q:h.

Hey, thanks for the detailed answer, makes a lot of sense!

Originally posted by mbml
Are you opening 17%+? If not I think he should often just play it slowly with AK and not isolate himself against the top of your range.

I'm opening around 17%, but I'm not sure what stat he could have, cause we only have 100 hands on each other. But I think most regs just dont 3bet AK CO vs UTG as a default, without knowning that his opponents opens too wide and/or calls 3bets too loose. So I thought that AK should definitely be in his range.