25nl QQ set

totally shipping turn all day with top set for sure. 88 would be closer

about turn this minr line is usually strong (specially coming from a nit), also J9 97 should be discounted (he's a nit!) so yeah ship all day

Hi there asimos,

have you ever heard of the funnel principle? It states that a player's range gets shorter as the streets go by, so he has a wider range pre flop and gets sorter as we get to the river. It also implies that a hand that is not in the previous street range cannot be in he next one.

So, in this hand I seriously doubt that a nitty player like this calls pre flop in these positions with J9s or 97s, so that means they cannot be in his range when he min raises turn. So that means you have the nuts turn.

So we have the nuts on super wet board and villain is raising us with a range that is likely strong. So the very easy decision is to shove. For us to make a call villain had to be rasing with hand with little equity and he would have to bluff river often with them. And this situation cannot be more different, villain's semi-bluffs have a ton of equity and we should make him put the maximum $ with them, this decreases his EV and increases ours.

Originally posted by double2
Hi there asimos,

So, in this hand I seriously doubt that a nitty player like this calls pre flop in these positions with J9s or 97s, so that means they cannot be in his range when he min raises turn. So that means you have the nuts turn.

I agree with all these and I have played the hand terrible imo.

Having that said sample is too small to safely assume that player is nit.
So I wouldn't automatically exclude straights from his range.

min raise is kind of awkward. That is what probably confused me during the game.

I wouldn't expect many sets in his range when he just min raises.
But probably he doesn't have air either.. so shove is the obvious to do.

Originally posted by asimos

Originally posted by double2
Hi there asimos,

So, in this hand I seriously doubt that a nitty player like this calls pre flop in these positions with J9s or 97s, so that means they cannot be in his range when he min raises turn. So that means you have the nuts turn.

I agree with all these and I have played the hand terrible imo.

Having that said sample is too small to safely assume that player is nit.
So I wouldn't automatically exclude straights from his range.

min raise is kind of awkward. That is what probably confused me during the game.

I wouldn't expect many sets in his range when he just min raises.
But probably he doesn't have air either.. so shove is the obvious to do.

You have a point, sample is small. We cannot exclude straights but we cannot exclude TT/88 played like this. We could argue that we should maybe call with 88.

But I don't think your play was terrible, you were too pessimistic, maybe I'm too optimistic and this is not such a super duper +EV spot to shove.

we might not be ahead 101% of the time but i think QQ is a clear shove. we can argue for calling with 88 (which seems good to me)