ATs 4bet cold vs BU

You are not even that great of a favourite against CO, and MP/BB/SB might wake up with a hand.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 39.42% 37.60% 1.82% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J5s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o }
MP3 60.58% 58.77% 1.82% { AJo }

I assume CO has 50% range here. Your equity is not going to increase by all that much, reaching a peak of 63.5% at the very most.

I guess we can calculate the EV of this spot

Assume MP/SB/BB only continues with JJ+/AK (3%)

P(all folds to you) = 0.97^3 = 0.913

If someone calls you, I'll just assume that you are HU, I will ignore 4-way situations to simplify the calculations. They are pretty improbable anyway so it shouldn't affect the EV too much.

I'll just assume 100BB for all other players. The fact that MP is deep makes it really bad for you.

0.913 [(60%*126) - 61] + 0.087 [(20%*187) + (25%*78) - 100] =
0.913(69-61) + 0.087(37.4 + 19.5 - 100)
= 7.3 - 3.75 = 3.55

So we can see it's +EV here if MP has 100BB. I'm honestly not sure how wide MP will rejam here, he probably should with JJ+/AK if he knows u are stacking off so lightly.

If I change the variable to 255BB instead of 100BB,
EV = 0.913(69-61) + 0.087(37.4 + 97 - 255)
7.3 - 10.5 = -2.8

The decision seems to be very close here. It should be a lot more of a stack off with AJs, here it's close to break-even. Your stack-off is probably fine.

Note that my calcs assume that MP has something 8% of the time, which is not true cos he only has something 3% of the time. I would have to add more stuff for SB/BB coming in with various stack sizes but I'll pass on that for now, and I assume that the final EV will be slightly above 0.

Why do you assume i would stack off vs MP for >200bb? I am not commited with this size. Also, this is first time he saw me call his shove, he can conclude i call lighter, but i dont think he is likely to gamble AK, JJ for 200bb.

Also, what is the meaning of 20% * 181bb?

oh yes that's right, my bad. forgot about that.

I guess that makes it more of a call

Also 25% * 78? I guess equity vs reg for side pot for 100bb deep?

Originally posted by GingerKid
Also 25% * 78? I guess equity vs reg for side pot for 100bb deep?

Yes. If you want you can go calculate the entire thing yourself by changing some variables. Maybe assume BB/SB have 80BB here.

Some simplifications:
6% of the time, BB/SB jams with top 3% with 80BB stack
3% of the time, MP jams with top 3% with 250BB stack