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QQ, 3b, river decision

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ivancro
Joined: 12.02.2008

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (SB): $108.60 (108.6 bb)
BB: $135.70 (135.7 bb)
UTG: $52.10 (52.1 bb)
MP: $119.20 (119.2 bb)
CO: $50.40 (50.4 bb)
BTN: $144.40 (144.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, BTN calls $7.50

Flop: ($21) 5 9 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

Turn: ($41) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

River: ($81) J (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN raises to $40, Hero ?

20/15 2k hands
BU RFI 42%
BU F3B 47%
4b range 4%
F2CB in 3B: flop 36%(14), turn 0/2
WTSD 26%
WWSF 44%
AGG% 38-30-19
Doesnt barrel or stab often OTR.

QhQs has 40% against his calling range OTR (if I put some 9x and TT)
[ TT, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, AcQc, KcQc, AsJs, KsJs, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Ts9s, Tc8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, Ac5c ]

Against more aggressive player this would be a shove for me because I would have to put all the money in
anyway by xcalling given 31% odds and my equity is usually higher than that vs his shoving range.

Since he seems very passive OTR I can either block-bet or xfold.
Not sure what's better or what to do vs this river minraise.
.


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4 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Flop i would bet 3/4 pot with QQ and Turn imo shove overbet, together with lower fd, this hand needs protection.
KK+ i would bet 3/4 pot or c/shove.


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ivancro
Joined: 12.02.2008

He doesnt have that many FD and by betting smaller
I keep all his weaker hand like 66-88, some 5x and make him
float alot of broadways (AsX and XcXc)
I could possibly bet bigger OTT


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

River bet is bad imo, unless he is completely brainless. Especially with your read he wont stab often where you can confidently x/f.
Your range is face up and he has a flush like 90% of the time. So flip a coin and kick yourself for making that bet, then fold.

I don't like betting larger and overbetting turn. I think killing of a street is pretty costly for SB. Especially when most are probably barreling too many draws anyway on this texture.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

If your assumptions are right then its an easy check on the R.. See no reason to blockbet here against a straight forward opponent.

I dont think our read is strong enough to checkfold. Can we be that sure that he has close to no busted draws here? I dont think so.

We block Qs which hurts us a bit but we cant be sure that he will always raise KsXs and AsXs on the flop. Then theres also 67s which he may/may not call the turn if he doesnt have a FD.

I certainly dont expect this guy to turn a weak pair into a bluff but i would think that bluffing with a busted draw is extremely std for most players. 2k sample isnt all that useful for river anyway


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