87o donk flop bluff

i think we need to compare your options.

Just because a donkbet is profitable here (i think it is vs this weaktight guy) doesn't mean it's the best option

1. normal check-raise
2. min check-raise

I think option 2 is likely to be the best option vs this guy

Originally posted by mbml
i think we need to compare your options.

Just because a donkbet is profitable here (i think it is vs this weaktight guy) doesn't mean it's the best option

1. normal check-raise
2. min check-raise

I think option 2 is likely to be the best option vs this guy

Did you see his stats, cbets 52% flop and turn, fold to float 68%?
IT means he doesn't barrel wide, meaning that he will not fold too much (don't remember exact fold vs raise, but if it would be non standard I would write it here).

EV_bet = 0.55 * 4.5bb - (0.45 * 2.14) = 1.5BB

This is with 0 equity bluff. off course you can argue, he is not folding 55% vs 1/2 pot bet, but also we can say he will fold more often on Axx dry board from BU because of weak range, and he gives credit to donks.

Since he doesn't fold too much vs raises, I don't see how can min check raise be better? We need around 50% FE, and with donk bet around 30%.

your stats aren't all that relevant

we can assume that despite his cbet % being so low, it will be much higher on this Ace high flop.

and what do you think is the "standard" fold vs raise frequency? Anything more than 45% is way too high

Since with raise i would need around 50-60% FE for zero equity bluff, i excpect standard to be a bit below that. With this hand i have very little equity vs his flat range.