NL10 - Should I bet on the river?

Your reasoning is qualitatively correct. Out of position, you don't need to be a favorite against his complete range. In practice, this involves a lot of guessing about what he does with various holdings if you bet or if you check. All three plays (bet-fold, check-call, check-fold) have the potential of being the best versus a random opponent.

Hey Saseca,

It's true that it's hard to extract three streets from worse. For this reason we can think about checking turn or even flop.

Your comments about river bet - it's not always better to bet in this situations just because we are planning to x/c. The advantage to x/c in some situations is that opponent may bet a bunch of bluffs while he can never call these.

If we did decide to bet the river it should be an underbet here, like $1.10 or something. The best option is likely x/f though hoping that villain checks back.

Originally posted by w34z3l
Hey Saseca,

It's true that it's hard to extract three streets from worse. For this reason we can think about checking turn or even flop.

Your comments about river bet - it's not always better to bet in this situations just because we are planning to x/c. The advantage to x/c in some situations is that opponent may bet a bunch of bluffs while he can never call these.

If we did decide to bet the river it should be an underbet here, like $1.10 or something. The best option is likely x/f though hoping that villain checks back.

Right. It often happens that b/f than is better than x/c, but a deeper analysis might reveal that x/f is best of all. In all it's a fun guessing game, and is of major importance in FL when you have stats and reads (and the situation is extremely common) ♠_biggrin: