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NL100 QQ vs EP

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Majku99
Joined: 22.02.2012

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $131.19 (131.2 bb)
BB: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
UTG+1: $149.42 (149.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $139.28 (139.3 bb)
MP1: $104.58 (104.6 bb)
MP2: $49.96 (50 bb)
MP3: $106.01 (106 bb)
CO: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q Q
MP3 posts BB OOP, UTG+1 raises to $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $4.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($16.50) 5 7 5 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets $9, Hero calls $9, BTN folds

Turn: ($34.50) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20

River: ($74.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $35, Hero calls $35

Results:

Spoiler

$144.50 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 5 7 5 3 5
UTG+1 showed 7 7 and won $141.70 ($73.20 net)
Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$68.50 net)

Cbets multiway 76%. So I think all bfd cbets turn its about 8combo of FD and 12 of KK+ , plus QQ. He have to bluff about 5 combos. River card is bad for that, but this may be matter of leveling , and villain is quite aggressive so what's your play here?


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2 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I think on such runout, most of villians will only bluff when they missclick. Especially if they bet less than 45% pot, vs your obvious 77-QQ range.

Still I would greatly discard KK+ and 77 combos when he bets only 1/2 pot. So I would put him on something like TT-QQ (also I would discard some TT), so I would say most of the time it is JJ realizing that value is thin. Imo his size with FH is horrible. So I would call, because I put him on such range


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Hi,

I agree with Ginger here, even an "aggro" is not bluffing that often when he cbets against to players and continues on a blank turn. It's just that we win against some of his value bets so we have to call.

Same for river, good pot odds and we win some of the time against some of his value bets so I would call as well. But I think he's never bluffing here.


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