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JJ on the river

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CamboCat
Joined: 19.10.2012

The SB looks standard TAGish over small sample.
He clearly reps JJ+.
What would you do differently in this hand?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $36.58 (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
BB: $25.34 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG: $32.13 (VPIP: 6.25, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP: $14.66 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: $51.57

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J♠ J♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, SB raises to $2.00, fold, Hero calls $1.45

Flop: ($4.25, 2 players) 9♦ 2♣ 9♣
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.25, 2 players) 4♠
SB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

River: ($19.25, 2 players) 7♥
SB bets $27.08 and is all-in, Hero calls $15.50 and is all-in


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2 replies
double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Hi combo,

pre flop usually JJ is a bet/stack off in these positions, but villain looks pretty tight so the call seems good.

Flop and turn look good.

River we have a bluffcatcher situation, villain is not value betting worse. So it leaves the question, is villain bluffing at all in this spot? I'd assume a 18/15 player is really not, so maybe fold could be best. But it's very hard to make these reads without more solid info on villain, specially when we can actually say "villain might check QQ+ at some point given the two 9 on the board, so his range is more bluff heavy". With more sample on villain and with him being this tight on a larger sample I think folding river would be best.


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webhunky
Joined: 31.03.2010

Couldn't agree more, river should be a fold.
That's why you only flatted in the first place - because opponent seems tight. And from my experience in Zoom - three barrel allin from this kind of player is 90% value bet. Especially cause the board is low and paired - people are less likely to bluff on such boards.


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