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Villain check/shoves on dry board: continue with overpair?

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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

This is BB's first hand at this table. I find the shove surprising here. My thought is that with a set he would want to get more money into the pot, so he'd bet small, so he's more likely got a small pair and is thinking that my raise is a bluff.

Pacific $4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 1.7, Hands: 178
UTG: $7.47 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.1, Hands: 239
UTG+1: $4.12 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 67
MP1: $4.33 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 2.4, Hands: 190
MP2: $3.46 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 61
Hero (CO): $14.50 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 8.3, Hands: 2159
BTN: $3.58 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 71
SB: $3.96 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 1.7, Hands: 178

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is CO with Q :club: Q :heart:
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.16, 2 folds, BB calls $0.12, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.38) 6 :spade: 2 :heart: 7 :club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.19, BB raises to $3.84, Hero calls $3.65

Turn: ($8.06) K :spade: (2 players)

River: ($8.06) 9 :club: (2 players)

Final Pot: $8.06
BB shows 9 :heart: 9 :spade:
Hero shows Q :club: Q :heart:
BB wins $7.59
(Rake: $0.47)


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2 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think that vs 88+ you are over 60% favourite.


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metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

We can even discount some overpairs that he would 3bet pre, and discount a few 77/66 sets as I thnk its less likely they just jam here
Equity Win Tie
CO 33.73% 33.73% 0.00% JJ-88, 22, AdAh, KdKh, QdQh, 7d7h, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6h6s, 98s, 76s
BU 66.27% 66.27% 0.00% QhQc


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