I'm not sure about my pre-flop open-raise here. My thought is that the players behind have a reasonable chance of folding and are unlikely to 3-bet. But maybe with a hand like this I'm better limping to get more players in with the aim of winning big should I hit my flush or straight?
Any way, on the flop I have top-pair-second-kicker, so the contibet is obvious. Villain's raise should be either a semibluff with a strong draw or a better hand (TPTK or better). If he has a straight draw, my draw is better. If he has a flush draw, then my draw could be better or worse (depending on whether his hand is Ax or not). In either case, I'm ahead at the moment. Otherwise he has TPTK or two pairs or a set. His set is unlikely to be Qs, because of card removal. So I have 11 outs for either a flush or three Qs, although he may also have outs for a FH.
With all that in mind, I 3-bet. I don't want to let him see another card cheaply in case he completes a draw, and I have sufficient outs to justify the bet if he calls. I now think that this bet probably ought to be bigger.
He 4-bets all-in. I'm then confident he has a set, but I still have 11 outs, which I think gives me sufficient equity to call here. Having run the maths, this is actually closer than I thought. Against a range of {QQ-JJ, 33}, my equity is 31.56%, and my requried equity is 31.42%.
Is this line sound? Or am I better to check his raise and see what comes on the turn?
Pacific $4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
CO: $7.89 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 1.7, Hands: 178
BTN: $7.37 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.1, Hands: 239
SB: $4.02 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 67
BB: $4.30 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 2.4, Hands: 190
UTG: $3.32 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 61
Hero (UTG+1): $10.62 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 8.3, Hands: 2159
MP1: $3.48 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 71
MP2: $3.88 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 1.7, Hands: 178
Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is UTG+1 with Q
K ![]()
UTG calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.20, 5 folds
Flop: ($0.50) 3
Q
J
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.25, MP2 raises to $0.56, Hero raises to $1.21, MP2 raises to $3.68, Hero calls $2.47
Turn: ($7.86) 6
(2 players)
River: ($7.86) A
(2 players)
Final Pot: $7.86
Hero shows Q
K ![]()
MP2 shows J
J ![]()
MP2 wins $7.40
(Rake: $0.46)