JJ 3bet pot double barrel and x/call River

Preflop 3 bet is not good with your hand. It is a standard call.
Can you give some thoughts or stats?

Villain fold2 3bet 50%
fold 2 3bet vs hero 25% (4)
flop vs cbet fold 33% (3)
WTSD 32%
W$SD 46%

I think villain does not have 7x in his 3 bet calling range.

Villain is folding 50% and the rest? How much he opens from MP?

The guy looks straightforward. I think preflop he is calling with enough wide range, so 3bet is fine. Think his range might be smthng like this: QQ-44,AQs+,A5s,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AdJd.

Flop cbet is fine imo. He should fold some combos like AQ, AK, that still have good equity vs. us. Plus he will call some draws.

On the turn the cbet is also fine imo. I think he would raise sets on flop. So, we could still get some value from FD plus our equity improves. If he is more aggro. x/c is option.

The river hits his range way better.

Board: 8d5d9sTc6s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 82.26% 80.65% 1.61% { QQ-TT, 77, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, QdJd, Ad5d }
BB 17.74% 16.13% 1.61% { JdJc }

So, I don't see any point in betting. Against this bet size I'm folding.

I also think that flatting preflop would be better. As played, I agree with checking the river, but I would fold. Given all the action, I don't expect him to bet worse hands at that spot.

What about missed flushdraws?

Originally posted by 2reac
What about missed flushdraws?

I think that, given he called the 3bet preflop, he doesn't have much of them.

Give some info on his posflop stats.

Screw the opponents range. His stats look not far from normal. You are at the rock bottom of your bluff catching range. You get bad odds from the pot -> easy fold.

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by 2reac
What about missed flushdraws?

I think that, given he called the 3bet preflop, he doesn't have much of them.

He might call with AdTd,AdQd,KdQd, even with AdKd. I`ve seen a lot of players calling 3bets IP with a lot of suited hands. I see him calling even with something like KTs,98s,QTs.

Postflop I expect him to raise any set . If he doesn`t raise OTF, he surely does it OTT , so 88,99,TT,55 I exlude from his River range.I don`t see any point in slowplaying sets on such a wet board. AA,KK I also exlude cause he 4bet preflop I suppose. He could play QQ this way, but I think he will xback on the R so I will exlude QQ from shoving range. If he call preflop with 77 surely he could have in his R shove range.

I have to call 2.85 to win 10$ so I need 28%equity.

IMO this is the most reasonable range of shoving R:

Masă: 9♠8♦5♦ T♣ 6♠
       Equity  Câştig     Tie
MP2    66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { 77, QJs, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdTd }
MP3    33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { JdJc }

I have 33% equity so I have to call.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Screw the opponents range. His stats look not far from normal. You are at the rock bottom of your bluff catching range. You get bad odds from the pot -> easy fold.

What is his shoving River range in your opinion?

The point is that it doesn't matter if you in any way use your holecards to determine when to bluff or bluff catch. In this case I don't put much thought into his range since he is not a maniac. This means he is somewhat balanced with some bluffs and some value. Here you have the worst possible bluff catcher. Calling with it means then that you call with 100% of your bluff catchers. If he is balanced, it doesn't matter. If he is balanced and awake, it does matter. He'll then subsequently rarely bluff you, and you'll get exploited by big value bets.

Edit: To make clear what I mean, it's pointless trying to find out what an average player has here. It is different with nits and maniacal bluffers. Well, then too you don't need to figure out their range here. You call the maniac. You fold (certainly even AA) against the nit. If you weigh in population reads (this is NL5, the river bet is skewed towards value), then the fold should be super clear.

Originally posted by YohanN7
If you weigh in population reads (this is NL5, the river bet is skewed towards value), then the fold should be super clear.

What if told you he had AKo?

The main reason why I called is that there are just a few hands who bets for value. I put him in range QJs but is less probable to have this hand since I had J♦ and he should raise on T most of the time. The same situation is with sets. What hand do you think he could play like that? Try to put yourself in his place, would you slowplay sets or straight? Would you bet R with something like QQ? 77 seems the most thinkable value hand to have OTR.

Originally posted by 2reac

Originally posted by YohanN7
If you weigh in population reads (this is NL5, the river bet is skewed towards value), then the fold should be super clear.

What if told you he had AKo?

If you told him that it means you are results oriented. Agree with everything YohaN7 wrote, folding river.

Wouldn't matter if you told me he had J3hh I still fold river.

As played, it's c/f on the river.

On the flop he will remain with many pocket pairs which, as the flop developed, turned into sets. You only beat 10-10, pair that you don't beat anymore on the turn.