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TP reraised - weak fold?

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pepevesterinen
Joined: 11.06.2014

Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10.56 (105.6 bb)
BB: $11.70 (117 bb)
Hero (UTG): $12.51 (125.1 bb)
MP: $13.51 (135.1 bb)
CO: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
BTN: $7.81 (78.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T Q
Hero raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, 4 folds

Villain 26/22, postflop agg% 29, I estimated he cold calls about 20% MP vs UTG, sample size 202 hands.

Flop: ($0.75) 7 Q 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, MP raises to $1.65, Hero folds

Flopped TP and villain doesn't fold to cbets so clear value. He reraised quite fast and I haven't seen him doing that before. Is fold still too weak?

Results:

Spoiler

$1.75 pot ($0.08 rake)
Final Board: 7 Q 8
Hero mucked T Q and lost (-$0.80 net)
MP mucked and won $1.67 ($0.87 net)


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11 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

I'm folding also, no doubts.


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GoOnCal1
Joined: 22.01.2015

fold I think


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Fold is right here.
One note: 26/22 villain will not cold call 20% from MP vs UTG. It would be something in the range of 5-7%. Still he has AQ, KQ, QJs in his range, that beat you.


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I would check F and go from there


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Why worry about giving initiative? We have the weakest Q vs MP's flatting range.

MP's calling range is pretty narrow (he doesn't flat 20% -> probably a mistake by OP). His range should have more PPs and some stronger Qxs. So it isn't like we are worried about too many T cards.

I'd rather c/c for value vs his pairs (underpairs to 7) which would probably stab once, than bet and iso vs better. JJ-99 we get value anyways.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I understand what you are trying to say. But why to give him initiative and free cards? He can have AK, AJ and then quite amount of draws /draws + 1 pair hands, even we block some Tx hands. I wouldn't feel comfortable check/calling the flop, turn/river, even on something like 2c and 5h. We look pretty capped, so he might bet three streets with 98 easily.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Betting 98 for 3 streets is a bit extreme here... I see the reason for x/calling.


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2reac
Joined: 10.04.2014

I would fold preflop.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Betting 98 for 3 streets is a bit extreme here... I see the reason for x/calling.

It is, but I'm just saying that with check/calling we are giving him the chance of winning the hand with every possible holding if he 3barrels.
I think that bet/folding two streets and check/folding river is alot better than check/calling two streets and check/folding river. With betting we protect our equity, which, true, is probably not the greatest. Plus we have some fold equity, which is also not that bad given the strenght of the hand we hold.


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excitedpoker
Joined: 12.08.2010

Originally posted by 2reac
I would fold preflop.

This. Folding preflop is the best play by a mile. Never betting this flop myself.


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