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KJs River shove?

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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 124.84 BB (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 17.02, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 145)
MP: 59.04 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.28, PFR: 12.24, 3Bet Preflop: 4.48, Hands: 354)
BTN: 100.2 BB (VPIP: 19.61, PFR: 16.18, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 208)
Hero (SB): 109.48 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.79, PFR: 12.88, 3Bet Preflop: 2.81, Hands: 1,053)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ J♠

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BTN calls 5 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) 5♥ T♦ 7♠
Hero bets 9.44 BB, BTN calls 9.44 BB

Turn: (33.88 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets 22 BB, BTN calls 22 BB

River: (77.88 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero:

I'm looking for a solid default play vs a good regular here
This will be my 3b range in SB with good BB:

F
I got 56% vs his full range with my range on flop - it's a pretty good board for me here

So I cbet all hands with 2overs+backdoor, cf just worst equity hands like KJo, A2-A4 wo fd backdoor, KJs with backdoors defo in cbet range.
check call T9s, some AT?
[T]
bet all TT+, sets, AT, check call QTs JTs, 88 99, possibly a few AKo here? and add a few combos of over pairs to be able to cc 2x here - which one to choose not sure.
barrel all bd fds, 89 + some more hands (which ones really? )as I hit the board so well - see R combo breakdown

[R]
1-A I should have 31% bluffs here, but I'm guessing I can have slightly more because of my range advantage on this board?

value Shove: TT+,77 (30combos)

Bluff: 89s (4 combos) +add more XXss. I'd start with all XXss without the Ace, as blocking AXss is bad (he will flat flop likely+call turn fold river with them)
then add AXs without 6 8 9 in it to not block 66 88 99
so that's 89s X4, J9ss, KJss, KQss, K9ss, AJs,AQs, AKs I'm shovelling for 11 combos. So KJss is definitely a shove here.

check call: (AT) KT. I actually have 12 AT combos 3KT combos and not many more air combos - I should add hands to T barrel range.

Yeah so while safely assuming KJss is a river shove the biggest question is what do we barrel with OTT besides 89+bdfd, how do I decide which hands that can CC 2x OTT+R I check instead of barreling


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7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

This is a nice example, where you have a solid rockish passive BB and you can just call preflop. If he wakes up and squeezes you can fold not bothered by it at all.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

How do you see his range then? Vs. 2 BB open I would make the 3 bet a little bit bigger, giving him worse odds to call me IP with a wider range. 9 bb I think is fine.

Villain calling range preflop: JJ-22,AdAh,AdAs,AQs-A9s,A5s-A4s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AdKd,AhKh,AQo-AJo (126 combos).

Flop calling range: JJ-55,A5s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AdKd,AsQs,AdTd,AhTh (56 combos). So, flop cbet seems fine, as he is going to fold more than half of his preflop calling range.

Turn: I see him continuing with something like this after you bet: JJ-TT,77,55,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,AsKs,AsQs,AdTd,AhTh,As5s (29 combos).

River: I guess he would raise often the sets on the river. So he should fold the rest of his holdings against push on the river. See him calling only with TT and AT, jj sometimes.

So, river shove is fine imo.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Maybe you check / call with hands with showdown value that have blockers to the target range you want him to fold?( Like JT, T9s)


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain's Preflop calling range will not be that wide, I think.
TT-77, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KQo and some combos of AKs, A5s-A2s.

Turn is something like that:
TT,77,ATs,KTs,QTs,J9s+,T9s,98s,AsQs,KsQs,As5s,As4s,As3s

I do not see a reason to bet turn.

And the river does not bring anything.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Why not betting the turn? hero equity improves and villain should fold big part of his holdings, like SD, some overcards, T with weak kicker.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We are behind his range ott and he is not folding that much.


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