ZOOM: rivering set and getting 3b

Should we fold on the flop with 2 overs to our pair?

Originally posted by GoOnCal1
Should we fold on the flop with 2 overs to our pair?

The fact that there are 2 overs to our pair doesn't mean that we should fold necessarily, but more so the fact that this board is just so shitty means that we should fold the flop. There are only 2 nice turn cards and absolutely no other way of winning this pot.

This is 1-street poker where you don't believe the cbet so you call when it's very possible you have the best hand at the moment but in fact you just don't ever see turns and rivers that make you happy. For example are you going to check/call the turn again if the turn is another 2? or a 3? If no: why bother calling this flop? If yes: tell me what you want to do on the river ♦

If the board was really dry then fine, call flop but your hand is super weak here.

As played hero should not be getting to this river spot in the first place.

Flop is a fold. So little cards improve us.

The flop is def a fold.
Now, I know maybe I overanalyze this NL2 hand, but this spot seems interesting to me so here it goes:

OTF he bets small, which indicates he probably doesnt have a very strong hand, maybe a weak J, so we exclude hands like QQ,JJ,88, but we cannot call since there are not alot of safe turn cards and we cannot raise, since he probably wont fold.

OTT he checks. He's either giving up, pot controlling with Jx or he hits 9sTs or KsQs/AsQs because all the hands that beat your set of 6s AND dont have flush draws would bet again to get value and protect against draws. I would actually bet this turn and barrel the river big to make his Jx fold.

OTR he puts you probably on 99, AK, AJ or missed draw and he wants to scare you. The only one combination that makes sense to bet is his exact hand, AsQs or KsQs and a bluff. So the raise is good to get value from KsQs and AsQs and against a 3bet, you lose to only one combination that makes sense. If he can play QQ, JJ or 88 this way, he can probably play J8 and QJ this way too... and the fact that he may go crazy with some random K high, since your range looks so bluffy on the river makes it a call. Dont feel bad for losing, the missplay isnt OTR, its on the flop for not folding it and (speculatively) on the turn for not betting it.

With no info then we have to assume MP2 range is tight and fold flop.

When set mining do just that. No set = no bet isn't a bad rule of thumb, it keeps you out of trouble like this. ♠_thumbsup:

I agree with folding the flop. As played, I think we should bet/fold the river because I don't expect worse hands to play like that.