7 handed. UTG is probably a good, solid player.
hero Qc 7c on BT with 60 big blinds
UTG opens 3 bb, hero calls, blinds fold
flop 6c 8s 9d (pot is 7.5bb)
UTG bets 5 bb
What should I do here? There is now 12.5 blinds in the pot and I have 57 behind.
If UTG has any sizeable pocket pair I'm in rough shape as only a few let my overcard play.
- 66 88 99 are sets: ~25% ev
- 77 has me drawing to a chop or a win if my overcard hits ~28% ev
- TT gives me 2 less outs to a straight ~34% ev
- I have 11 outs to JJ ~42% ev (decent)
- QQ+ makes my overcard unwinnable ~31% ev
If I raise I'm pretty pot commited to my -ev.
If I call it might be difficult to get paid off if I turn the straight as it's a 1 card.
Now that I've played the hand preflop, should I be folding the flop?
Is there a way that I can extract value by proceeding on this pretty decent board for me?