AQ river shove

Villain x/c flop doesn't look like a set, he checks turn too and there is a risk we check behind. When he min check raises, could we shove? He will call with some of his drawing hands and weaker Qx. Sometimes he can slowplay 55 or JJ but shit happens. As played I think I would call OTR.

I would just get it in on the turn after villain raise, and expect he will call - often with weaker hands than ours.

Originally posted by Drawinator
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Only at the river I questions my play. I get good odds against a fishy player. But I think I should have folded?

You need to equip yourself to be able to answer easy questions like this for yourself. You should not need go to the fortune-teller (which you in effect do by asking here) and ask if villain is bluffing this particular time.

Oh, those turn min-raises...
I am not convinced yet, but have seen Qx and flushes here. We can call river.

Originally posted by nitrol
Oh, those turn min-raises...
I am not convinced yet, but have seen Qx and flushes here. We can call river.

Qx flushes here? Or you mean in general situations with a minraise OTT?

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Drawinator
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Only at the river I questions my play. I get good odds against a fishy player. But I think I should have folded?

You need to equip yourself to be able to answer easy questions like this for yourself. You should not need go to the fortune-teller (which you in effect do by asking here) and ask if villain is bluffing this particular time.

I should be able to answer such a question but I still have troubel with figuring out the ranges and using the stats against such a player. Do you have any recommend reading or watching about this subject?

I'll pass the question about recommend reading or watching to others more up to date on the available material. But generally, one method of assigning ranges is to put yourself in villains shoes. Then you know what you would in your range have if situations were reversed. Begin with the preflop range and then discard hands from the range until you come up to the relevant point in the hand. I think they call in the "funnel method". That is a start.

Then there is also a method (in math-land:) ) that doesn't give a damned about what villain is holding. It is concerned only with the board, the action, and your particular hand. This method can't lose. It always wins. But no one really knows exactly how to figure out the right move in every spot. (It is a way too hard a task even for computers.) The thing is that it can be approximated reasonably well, especially on the river or in all-in situations.

In the present situation you basically try to figure out which hands in your range will beat bluffs. Then you look at villains investment assuming he is bluffing. How much must he succeed to break even? In this case he needs to succeed 50% of the time (because he makes a pot sized bet). You should then fold 50% of your bluff catchers. Which 50%? Naturally, you fold the bottom 50%.

Now think again about you hand. Is it a bluff catcher, and if so, is it one of the worst or one of the better ones?

This makes it rather easy, at least when peacefully examining the hand after the event. Note that this isn't perfect. It can be improved on by actually taking reads (this is identical to a range on part of villain) into account, and either call more or less than the mathematical method suggests. The mathematical method will, when done right, which is extremely difficult, always win in the long run. You can do better by taking the math method as a base line and adjust from there according to player tendencies. This is contrary to how most people think. They try to figure out whether villain is bluffing, and care little about own hand strength and villains investment in potential bluffs.

I'd like to shove this turn for value. We block QQ, and the last combo of QQ and even JJ might 3bet sometimes so reduced chance of seeing them as well.

QJ, well, it happens sometimes. So do plenty of other Qx that we beat (or tie with) though, more than 55 and QJ. I don't think the villain has semi-bluffs here much as the minraise is too weak / wants a call, it is just a matter of - what is he value raising with? I think there are enough hands we beat to shove.

As played OTR it gets harder as KQ beats us now, and the shove says not scared of you possibly making something with the K. Tight either way. On reflection I like to think I could fold. In the moment I believe I would call.

Edit - a possible range analysis. The AhKh is a placeholder to add one possible combo of a semibluff raise. I'm shoving the turn.

Board: 5♥Q♠J♦ Q♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    37.89%  29.16%   8.73% { JJ, 55, AQs, KQs, Q2s+, AhKh, AQo, KQo, Q8o+ }
MP3    62.11%  53.38%   8.73% { AcQc }

Originally posted by Hesticus

Originally posted by nitrol
Oh, those turn min-raises...
I am not convinced yet, but have seen Qx and flushes here. We can call river.

Qx flushes here? Or you mean in general situations with a minraise OTT?

I mean FDs.
Shoving seems like a good idea.

Ah ok. thnx

thanks for the answers. I will look into the funneling methode. At the moment I am following a poker math course so I will get therre soon I quess.