Nut Straight -- best value line?

I would squeeze this one preflop, put pressure on MP and isolate vs laggy CO. Plus we get initiative when OOP.
I am not betting this river.

I think Flush draws are a small part of his range here -- which should be heavily skewed towards big 2P type hands -- no?

Of course not. MP has a lot Flushes.

How does MP have a *lot* of flushes. His PF range is skewed high with some PP and a yes a number of sooteds -- of which 3/4 have NOT made this flush. He has a lot more paired hands here than flushes IMO -- esp. good aces and KQ -- which play the same way.
What is your estimate for flushes versus big pairs? I have not done the math but my feeling is at least 2:1 in favor of big cards (that also wont fold).
He could easily also have P+heart flush combos on the Flop which he clearly bets on the Turn esp. as it is a scare card.

Of course MP has flushes here. There is plenty of suited hands in villains range. OTT he could have pair+draw, like Ac5c. When villain bets this multiway I think his range is pretty much Kx,Qx and draws, meaning flush draw and straight draws. Board Ah and Kh reduces the amount of his heart draws. When he calls your turn raise I think he can have that club draw or 2 pair. Single pairs he would fold very likely and sets he should 3bet.

Villains range isaround 20% PFR from MP -- so we include all PP, suited Aces, suited broadways and connectors down to 56s and some 2-gappers, some offsuit broadways and Aces to ATo.
Given the Flop and Turn action we can restrict Villain to only and combos for his suiteds, QQ+ and 22 plus 2P hands or pair plus GS.
Does this look a reasonable range for the Turn?

Board: 2♣Q♣K♥ A♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    18.26%  12.26%   6.01% { QQ+, 22, AQs+, KQs, AcJc, KcJc, QhJh, AcTc, KcTc, QhTh, JhTh, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qh9h, Jh9h, Jc9c, Th9h, Tc9c, Ac8c, Th8h, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, ATo+, KQo, JTo }
BB     81.74%  75.73%   6.01% { JsTd }

Given my XR sizing I think Villain can continue with a wide range of hands with live outs -- all his flush draws and pair+GS probably continue as do 2P and big sets.

The question is what will he call to the River shove?
There are a lot of club flushes -- but if we assume a call from all sets and the best 2P hands -- assuming he folds 2P except AK.

Raising the Turn is consistent with what I have, but also a set (22 or a slowplayed big pair) or a plus draw combo. It's enough to call with no? Though my estimate was wrong it is much closer to 50:50 than I thought --- hmmmm

Board: 2♣Q♣K♥ A♥ 7♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    44.19%  34.88%   9.30% { QQ+, 22, AKs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JhTh, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AKo, JTo }
BB     55.81%  46.51%   9.30% { JsTd }

You can discount the sets as they would have shoved ott.
On river you will face flushes most of the time when you bet...

Yes those sets should definitely shove OTT to protect from draws. If you take sets out of his range we have only 25% equity against that range. I think he should shove some 2 pair hands too here for the same reason?

Yes, strong hands need protection and would be played aggressively.

I like your line here on the turn, your raise should just be a bit bigger. River is a check and call, depending of course on a villain. That is a huge scare card for worse hands than yours after all..

Yes you are right! I did not think of how Villain would play the Turn with 3X.