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EV difference

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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

Hello, im trying to improve the way i look at loss's mentally, but i cnt remeber how to work this out, its been a while since i have played.

How do i work out the EV difference say of this hand, rather then look at it as i lost $5 i would like to look at it i won $x amount per hand how do i work that out ?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2916518
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $8.60
UTG: $6.11
UTG+1: $8.73
UTG+2: $24.36
MP1: $6.10
MP2: $10.55
CO: $5.00
BTN: $18.22
SB: $8.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with J :heart: Q :heart:
7 folds, SB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.00) 3 :heart: 8 :heart: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
SB bets $0.61, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.89

Turn: ($10.00) 3 :spade: (2 players)

River: ($10.00) K :spade: (2 players)

Final Pot: $10.00
Hero shows J :heart: Q :heart: (a pair of Threes)
SB shows 9 :club: 7 :club: (two pair, Nines and Threes)
SB wins $9.55
(Rake: $0.45)


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7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Give some thoughts, why do you raise?


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

You definitely should look at BRM articles. You can't look at your play money as the money. There is a huge difference. Money at your PS account will only be your when you will cashout it. Hero, what strategy do you use? SSS ? Seems like most of players at the table are fishes. Only btn and UTG probably regulars. You need a solid bankroll to allow the loses, loses is required part of the game. Suppose, you have AA and your opponent has KK and you both go all in preflop. What could happen? You still can LOOSE. You have 80% of equity. So, you will only win 4 of 5 time, that means your opponent will sometime realise his equity (1 of 5 time) and this loose should NOT make you broken. If it will make you broken - you have real problems with BRM.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

PS - you, probably need to use stars helper software - this will convert your stack into BB (this soft only works for PS, but there are another soft for other poker rooms.). So, this will make your play a little bit easier when you see BB but not USD/CAD etc.


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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

This is a 20bb cap game, and yes i am using the SSS strategy, Let me try and explain this in a different way.

I have 60% equity, in this hand (probably more vs this player's range) from flop to river, so that means ill win 60% of the time, what is my profit per hand? How do i work that out and whats the mathematical formula for it, because rather then look at this as losing $5, i would rather look at it as winning 10c per hand or whatever the ammount may be.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

Originally posted by FrozenElf
ill win 60% of the time.

That is the main idea I suppose - you will loose 40% of the time. Just to note - if you suppose your opponent is fishy, does your opponent think about equity, fold equity, range and etc? I guess no, he has a pair and he really likes it. Are you able to push out any fish from the hand with his TP on the flop? I think never. I guess if you push on the river when scary card comes in - there is still no fold equity vs fish ("Never bluff a fish."), but vs regular you could try to find FE.
So, about the profit, from ($10.00) I suppose you will loose 40% of the time = 4$, and win 60% = 6$. So, net won on the huge distance 2$. But!!! That is for the huge amount of hand - >=10000 or more. In short term you can't predict who are you - winner or loose.


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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

thanks for replying and helping, but your still not answering what i wanted to know lol.

If i played this hand an infinity amount of times how much $ would i win per hand? since this is a +EV play.

The profit of this hand is $1/100 times $0.01c each time this same situation happens?


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

First, I need to apologize about my first post and thought about BRM. I just thought there is no one at our days who plays SSS.
Second, I thought I answered :f_biggrin: Originally posted by tiltmonk
So, about the profit, from ($10.00) I suppose you will loose 40% of the time = 4$, and win 60% = 6$. So, net won on the huge distance 2$.

. In the middle you will net win $2 per hand. So, your expected WR is 0,25$*8 = 8BB/100 in this case.

PS: I missed rake calculations, so
you loose : 0,4 * $9.55 = 3,82
you win: 0,6 * $9,55 = 5,73
net won: 5,73-3,82 = 1,91 => 1,91/0,25 = 7,64 BB/100 is expected net win rate.


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