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98s being too optimistic about implied odds on turn?

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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 139.7 BB
UTG: 100 BB
Hero (CO): 233.1 BB
BTN: 139.6 BB
SB: 33.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♠ 9♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 5 BB, BB calls 4 BB, UTG calls 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 4 players) Q♥ T♣ 7♥
SB bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB, UTG calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Turn: (24 BB, 4 players) 5♦
SB checks, BB bets 12 BB, UTG calls 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB, SB calls 12 BB

River: (72 BB, 4 players) J♥
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 48.5 BB, Hero calls 48.5 BB, fold, fold

Spoiler

UTG shows 2♥ A♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 54%, Flop 71%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks 8♠ 9♠ (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 29%, Turn 23%)
UTG wins 157.8 BB

UTG 21/16 19h
SB: 72/8 27h
BB: 58/12 26h

on the other hand - the one who bets is a fish, so maybe there is implied odds.

But after reg bet I believed I am often in trouble on river, but was not sure if I can fold.


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12 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It looks standard to me.. Maybe someone could be able to fold a straight against tight UTG here but not me. This hand is played quite passively and no one seems really interested in the pot so this might be a bluff. And he has a bunch of weaker value hands he might bet.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The problem is that UTG can have AK too. So we can think of a fold here.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

UTG is probably not bluffing 3 opponents on a board that should have hit at least someone. (Yes, I know that the fishae checked, but still...)


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rompas
Joined: 12.02.2014

Utg suddenly woke up with a bet after river card in multiway pot so fold would be fine here i think


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Catonthemat
Joined: 01.08.2016

Depending on what mood I was in I would consider folding. The J♥: hits the flush and gives you the wrong end of the straight.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I guess it is fold. Just one note - UTG just calls preflop vs fish 3b - so he most of the time Do not have Premium Pocket bcs he would reisolate with in this case.
Next, flop is pretty wet, so if UTG would have a set - he would definitely raise it for value - the same on the turn. He definitely would raise turn with 2p+ - but he just called, I guess he could have some draw, may be AK also. Anyway, river closes flush and higher straight and UTG bet in MWP 2/3 - he most probably do not care what do you have, it could AK, but it most probably a flush. Can you beat AK? Can you beat flush? Just fold - save money.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

looks like an easy fold honestly (reg bets into 3, AK, flushes). i'm probably a nit


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Ok, I see many think its a fold. It feels weird to call turn to hit straight and fold it. But since I see many players agree with fold, its ok to fold then.

But there was little talk about turn. Maybe fold a turn already? Of course when nobody bets river, we bet and make money from top pairs when we hit. But the board is so drawy and can bring lot of better hands to opponents, so maybe we do not even have implied odds to call?


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you are in position so if you hit the river you can probably play perfectly. i still tend towards a turn call though i can definitely understand folding


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Turn is a call. He bet is small and we can improve.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think turn is a call even if we take some reverse implied odds into account. We have to call 1/3 of the pot and there is a chance SB will call too. Clear call.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Yes, turn is a call.


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