888 Poker - $0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 106.35 BB (VPIP: 23.86, PFR: 18.69, 3Bet Preflop: 7.92, Hands: 1,491)
BB: 29 BB (VPIP: 48.28, PFR: 27.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
Hero (BTN): 149.15 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♠ A♦
Hero raises to 2.25 BB, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.75 BB
Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) 2♠ K♥ Q♠
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB
Turn: (43 BB, 2 players) 6♥
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (43 BB, 2 players) 8♥
SB checks, Hero checks
Villain is a pretty standard reg, never saw him getting greatly out of line. He 3bets about 10% from the SB, and also 10% vs BTN-Openraises. AJo therefore should be a standard defend in position.
He cbets 69% OTF in 3bet-Pots.
Now, there's the question what we do if we get a board like this. There are bunch of hands we can actually defend vs. a cbet which are stronger (draws) than a gutshot and one (rarely clean) overcard. And 10% 3bet-Range isn't that high.
I just gave him a 3betting range of ~12% in that spot specifically:
99+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo
And I probably defend something like this:
77-JJ,A2s-AQs,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,AJo-AQo,KQo
On that flop his range hits harder (57% Equity) against our range (43%). Taking this measure he should bet more, and we can fold more of our range.
He needs ~39% Foldequity to get auto-profit, therefore we have to defend at least 61% of our callingrange.
We have to defend a 7,8% Range:
JJ,ATs-AQs,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,AJo-AQo,KQo,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,7s6s,As9s
I just left in all the pairs, JJ as the worst, all the spade-draws and all the AJ-Combos, and ATs.
You agree?
Next question, then is how to continue with our hand?
If villain bets and then checks THIS board, his most likely hand is something like AJ, or a weak Kx, maybe even worse pairs he's cbetting. Therefore we should target all holdings we chop against or lose to at the showdown and just bet, right?
