JJ x overpair flop vs donkey

Originally posted by Polezi
VIllain is donkey, should I call on the turn?

I'm not sure. He probably has a lot of Ax hands in his range but on the other hand folding would seem quite weak. He can be stabbing with anything maybe?

If you are ready to invest, You should do it on flop.
On turn better fold.

As played, you should call. You have, by checking, told him that you have no A. He then does not expect to get called when making a near PSB if holding an A. Of course, he might use some intricate reasoning figuring that a large bet signals weakness... This is one of the rare times I am happy to downgrade my principle of folding more to big bets than to small bets. The donkier (the more aggressive) he is, the more reason you have to check flop behind and call turn.

When we checked the flop (and I like it), we usually plan to call the turn or make a protection/block bet in case he checks again. When he bets that big, I don't mind folding, tbh. If he is a donk, maybe we can call, but I expect alot of bets OTR and we would have to fold there.

I would he cbetting this flop 100% of the time. Thats a perfect flop to cbet into. He raised and called a reraise. An A is in his range but because you reraised its also a large part of your range aswel. His calling hands are only Ax everything else he is folding. So once you cbet $3.50 you know if he had the A, then base all future decision on this. 9 10 is calling and Ax, there isnt many combos of this. 10x is folding and if 10x does call then he wont be betting any further streets and just hoping for a cheap show down. The 4 doesnt change a thing on the turn so if you bet and he calls OTF then let it go on any future streets knowing he's got TP+ think about all the other cards in his range he could be folding on the flop Kx Q8+ suited connectors that didnt get close. That is a lot of cards that didnt hit either to the few that did. That will fire into you because you shown you didnt have the A.

Originally posted by dragonste
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Thats a perfect flop to cbet into. He raised and called a reraise.
...

No, it isn't. By your own reasoning a bet will be called if and only if we are beat. Such bets are a waste of money. They are turning our showdownable hand into a bluff that has no fold equity. These bets can be made out of position to (instead of giving up), since we then by definition will be making worse decisions than villain on later streets. I am not a huge fan of them there wither. Here, making the bet is just an excuse for not having the balls to play poker with on-nuts.

i disagree with you on this one, my reasoning behind betting on the flop is that by betting on the flop you make decisions on future streets much easier for yourself i find. you win this pot more by him just folding, to the times that he holds the A and calls. instead of the $3ish that you bet on the flop to win $6 how many times is he going to hit his top pair, you win a lot more in the long run by betting now and winning the pot on the flop than on showdown. although the hand did have showdown value preflop flop, i think your showdown value has gone on the flop and you have to turn your hand into a bluff. hes bet $5 on the turn and your forced to fold, he could be betting this with any two cards, i know i would and do. by checking the flop, you are not polarizing your range and also showing ultimate weakness or ultimate strength that you are scared of the ace or have the nuts.

Originally posted by dragonste
..., my reasoning behind betting on the flop is that by betting on the flop you make decisions on future streets much easier for yourself i find.

Yes, you are making future decisions easier. This is not at all the same as making the optimal decisions (throughout the hand) maximizing EV. All you accomplish is that you won't be bluffed out. Think about catching these bluffs once in a while instead.