Preflop: Since villain seems LAG I would imagine they call 3b's preflop with something like:
Spoiler
TT-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,[25]AA-KK,AKo,AKs[/25],[50]QQ-JJ[/50]
I would expect villain to mostly 4b QQ+, AKo therefore have weighted these about 25% (just started using flopzilla and weighting things, so hopefully this is a correct or reasonable approach or would you look to cap their range instead)
Flop: So, I think I can either bet/fold, bet/call or x/c here and x/raising seems overplayed. If I bet I can continue on a number of good turns either by barelling or x/c'ing. Any spade,9h,7h,3h, 5x/6x are good for my hand vs his flop calling range.
I can't see too many hands raising me OTF that make sense unless villain is the type to overplay OPs or sets. Maybe villain might do this with some type of OESD or 45s for example.
Although a small sample villain's "bet vs missed flop c-bet is 100% 4/4" so I think we can make an argument for x/c'ing however I'm not sure I like giving up the betting lead since we romve the option of barreling turns unless we donk OTT. However, this may be worth considering in terms of having some sort of x/c'ing range b/c what else do we x/c as PFA'r with. It would be just 44/55/99 and air IMO. If villain is the type to rarely fold to flop c-bets then maybe we should lean towards x/cing since 1) they dont fold often and 2) they have a tendency to bluff their air.
On the other hand by betting we have the added benefit of folding out the equity share of hands we beat, negate the positional disadvantage a little and make furture streets easier to play.
as played...
Turn: Really good card for me. Question here is: barrel or x/c? In a worst case scenario (IMO) vs 2pr+ flushdraws and combo draws then we have about 46% equity. In terms of whether to barrel or x/c I guess it depends how often (or wide) villain calls the flop and how often they're folding the turn. I villain is folding any TP or PP then I think we should barrel, if not then x/c.
When villain bets the turn I would imagine they do this TP+ and good draws, against which I have about 50% equity, so seems like a profitable x/c. I should be able to extract a decent amount of value if I make my FD since it would have come backdoor, concealing it a little more, the straight however would be a little more obvious. There can obviously be some reverse implied odds againts hands like 68s/TJs/88/33, spades and any card that pairs the board in case of a set, so I'm not quite sure.
River: So this is a really polarizing bet IMO b/c I think any 1pr type hand would check beind (including a rivered Ax) . Either villain has a strong made hand or air. He could be turning something like a weak pair/pair draw into a bluff but are hands still better than mine, therefore I didn't really feel like getting my cape on and making a hero call. Plus it's NL5 people are mostly betting for value. I can basically beat busted straight draw or FD which might still have improved to beat me.
I probably could have gone into more detail on this one but it has taken me a while to get to this point so I'll just leave it at that.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (SB): $6.03
BB: $5.07 (VPIP: 21.57, PFR: 15.69, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 53)
CO: $5.16 (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 15.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
BTN: $5.00 (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 52)
Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 5♠ 6♠
CO raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) 4♦ 9♠ 5♣
Hero bets $0.46, CO calls $0.46
Turn: ($1.87, 2 players) 7♠
Hero checks, CO bets $1.79, Hero calls $1.79
River: ($5.45, 2 players) A♣
Hero checks, CO bets $2.46 and is all-in, fold
CO wins $5.22
