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Full on the River, do I beat enough of the opponent betting range?

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guanaco96
Joined: 09.01.2017

PokerStars - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100.52 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero (CO): 102.44 BB
BTN: 45.76 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
SB: 61.52 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: 122.4 BB (VPIP: 53.76, PFR: 27.17, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 97)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♠ 6♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop: (4.96 BB, 2 players) 6♥ T♥ 8♦
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (4.96 BB, 2 players) A♥
BB bets 4.72 BB, Hero raises to 14.76 BB, BB calls 10.04 BB

River: (34.48 BB, 2 players) A♣
BB checks, Hero bets 10.76 BB, BB raises to 64.88 BB, Hero raises to 85.4 BB and is all-in, BB calls 20.52 BB

is my move correct? would my opponent play his flushes in this way once the board pairs? does calling make sense or is it better to shove or fold (imo the threshold is between broking and folding, because we have FE=0)? Is it possible to fold the worst full when action is so strong but there are possible flushes?


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3 replies
Varune
Joined: 24.04.2009

He seems quite the maniac seeing his Vpip/Pfr. With that in mind i'm never folding a boat here.

Secondly i would valuebet bigger on the river, you're losing ALOT of value if he just calls you with his flushes/straights or Ax.

If he had more normal stats i might be able to find a fold, but still i'd just shove allin, if we're beat it's just a cooler hand.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

It simply cannot be close between folding and reraising because you don't have enough money to bluff, and you aren't a guru that can find out if he is doing this with poor value. That requires a hole card camera. Similarly, you get 2:1 in pot odds and have a very decent bluff catcher.

Note that you beat 66, 88, TT. You lose to AT and A8 (and split with A6). The former constitute 7 combos, and the latter 6 combos. With such a loose player, I'd say all combos are almost equally possible, especially since these guys often like slowplaying sets.

Thus folding is a pretty bad move.

I'd reraise the last 20.52 bb only of I knew the guy was bad after the flop. My guess is that a reraise simply increases variance and rake.

But, goddammit - DON'T FOLD!


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think this hand looks ok. I wouldn't fold OTR.
Only thing that I'm not so sure of is raising the turn.


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