33 All-in, after folds...

This looks close to a coinflip for me. I believe villain can shove quite many hands that have just 2 high cards. Since there is already money in the pot, I think calling should be profitable. Or at least very close to it.

What you are asking can be solved with a calculator and equilab. We can calculate that you need to win this just 30% of the time to break even. Now you can put villain on a range and see if you get that much equity.

Here is an example:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.61% 41.90% 0.71% { 3h3c }
MP3 57.39% 56.68% 0.71% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

You can play with the ranges and see how it goes.

You are dealing with a limp shove and then it’s tricky to give him hands that you will beat, but he could be on tilt off course, but without any reads or stats is difficult to call here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I also think calling would be close to being profitable. Maybe we could even skip that preflop call when the shorstack with a shovable stack is still in the hand because we will have less implied odds for two reasons:
1) recreational is not full-stacked, so we will earn less money from him on average when we hit a set
2) he will shove more often with this stack size, so we will have to fold or have a hard time calling

Originally posted by la55i
This looks close to a coinflip for me. I believe villain can shove quite many hands that have just 2 high cards. Since there is already money in the pot, I think calling should be profitable. Or at least very close to it.

What you are asking can be solved with a calculator and equilab. We can calculate that you need to win this just 30% of the time to break even. Now you can put villain on a range and see if you get that much equity.

Here is an example:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.61% 41.90% 0.71% { 3h3c }
MP3 57.39% 56.68% 0.71% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

You can play with the ranges and see how it goes.

Hey thanks for the reply,

I'm kind've a noob, can you link me to a tutorial.. I'm not quite sure how to do the math.

YouTube search for 'the poker bank' Tons of this stuff..

Don't think that we habe a coin flip here vs limp shove. I'd fold

Originally posted by sc2zerker

Originally posted by la55i
This looks close to a coinflip for me. I believe villain can shove quite many hands that have just 2 high cards. Since there is already money in the pot, I think calling should be profitable. Or at least very close to it.

What you are asking can be solved with a calculator and equilab. We can calculate that you need to win this just 30% of the time to break even. Now you can put villain on a range and see if you get that much equity.

Here is an example:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.61% 41.90% 0.71% { 3h3c }
MP3 57.39% 56.68% 0.71% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

You can play with the ranges and see how it goes.

Hey thanks for the reply,

I'm kind've a noob, can you link me to a tutorial.. I'm not quite sure how to do the math.

I just actually made a video about basic poker math. You can find it here.

Originally posted by LacsapR
Don't think that we habe a coin flip here vs limp shove. I'd fold

Ture, might not be a coinflip. But we need to win this just over 30% of the time. If villain's range is QQ+,AK we will still be break even.

The one good thing is that we close the action. If there were still players to act we sould be folding.

Originally posted by LacsapR
Don't think that we habe a coin flip here vs limp shove. I'd fold

Me too. Forgot about that one

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by LacsapR
Don't think that we habe a coin flip here vs limp shove. I'd fold

Ture, might not be a coinflip. But we need to win this just over 30% of the time. If villain's range is QQ+,AK we will still be break even.

Well OK that is not obvious. Interesting to see this after calculations.