Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $2.39 (119.5 bb)
BB: $2.21 (110.5 bb)
UTG: $10.10 (505 bb)
Hero (MP): $2.15 (107.5 bb)
CO: $1 (50 bb)
BTN: $2.24 (112 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K♥: 9♥:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.06, CO folds, BTN calls $0.06, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.15) 6♥: 6♠: 9♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.07, BTN calls $0.07
Turn: ($0.29) J♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.18, BTN calls $0.18
River: ($0.65) J♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44
Results:
Spoiler
$1.53 pot ($0.05 rake)
Final Board: 6♥: 6♠: 9♣: J♥: J♠:
Hero showed K♥: 9♥: and won $1.48 ($0.73 net)
BTN showed 4♥: A♥: and lost (-$0.75 net)
Hi, I have this hand here. Villain is 20/15/5,6/205 hands, Bu cold call 20% ,Bu 3bet ca 6,3% (only 16 hands sample - says almost nothing), Fold to Cbet flop IP - 25% (4 hands...useless sample)
Preflop is standard open for me, weakest KXs I open from MP. On the flop I decided to bet small so I won't isolate myself to stronger hands of villain. I chose thin value bet because he can float with overcards, lower PPs, weaker 9 with hand like 98s possibly, Draws, maybe backdoor FD etc as I put him on cold call range like TT-22, AQs-A9s, A5s-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KQo.
My equity on the flop is something like 76%. He only has quite few better hands compared to weaker hands he is capable to call with given my sizing. Based on the presumed range he only has 24 combos better than mine hand and it's like 14,5% of his possible range. I think I can get called by approx 90% of his range as I think he would call with overcards, BDFD, OESD, any PP and of course overpairs with PP and two pairs with 9 paired.
I just don't know if sizing plays a big role here...would I be able to get same frequency of cbet calls if I chose to bet 2/3? If yes it's better to bet more, guess I could bet like 2/3 on the flop as he only has better hand with ca 15-20% probability maximum.
On the turn I decided to cbet again, this time bigger because I can make him fold TT or A9, plus I have a flush draw now so I can get flush on the river if he has better hands and want to get it paid on the river. I can also get paid by his BDFD hands which he probably calls on the flop and few other draws possibly.
River is pretty much fu*** up. He beats me with any J now, TT ( which I think he would probably fold by now but not sure.) There is still possibility of A9 i think but not sure. He still can have slowplayed 66 or 99 ( which is just one combo each, not bothering me too much) I was thinking about what to do...whether I should thin value bet or check with calling intention as he pretty much only has nuts or nothing now if he bets. I think he would most likely check behind with some medium strength hand.
Betting the river was not interesting for me as it would only make him fold weaker hands and call/reraise stronger hands. Maybe I could get called with some low pocket pairs but I think he shouldn't have any after my turn bet, and there are not weaker hands except for Q9s maybe..K9s is split, A9s is lose. I can't find hands to get enough value of to bet. So I decided to bluff catch pretty much as he can have various busted FDs and maybe few busted straight draws/combo draws. I think he would bet something like this on the river : AdJc, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AhQh, AdJd, AcJc, QdJd, QcJc, AhTh, KdTd, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, JdTd, JcTc, 9d9s, 6d6c, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h
=Fullhouses with J, quads and some busted draws - FD,SD. It means he has roughly 50% hands better than mine and 50% worse, medium hands he checks back or thin value bet maybe (not 2/3 sizing probably). My odds to call are around 29%. So I should make that call on the river with roughly 50% equity.
