PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 18)
CO: 40 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 196.5 BB (VPIP: 6.25, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 87 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♣ K♠
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q♣ A♠ 9♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB
Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 17.5 BB, fold
Hero wins 26.5 BB
Here are my thoughts:
Preflop: Vs a good opponent I think this hand is not strong enough to call from the BB vs a UTG open so I'll rather fold it in the future. But here we are.
Flop: In my opinion this texture definitely belongs to the UTG raiser so I'm going to play less aggressively here if I get the odds (X/C).
When villain bets roughly half pot I think I'm good calling with implied odds. I figured I'd need to extract roughly 27 more bb on later streets to make the call. Math:
Spoiler
3 bb to call * 13 = 39 bb
pot after call = 6 + 3 + 3 = 12 bb
39 - 12 = 27 bb
With effective stacks of 93 bb behind I thought this was reasonably achievable.
Turn: The turn card doesn't really change anything for either range but it gives my specific holding a ton more outs, so I think it's reasonable to go for a semi-bluff. I don't really like the idea of donking here because it seems like an unreasonable play that villain might call at a somewhat high frequency so it seems X/R is the best option I have. The fact that turn raises are usually very value-heavy makes it all the more attractive, and the As on the board as well as the Ks in my hand block villain from having most flushes in his range.
However, I'm unsure about what my plan should be on the river in case I miss.
Population analysis suggests that the average player does not fold enough to a turn raise for an automatic profit (i.e. any 2 cards), but a turn raise with a FD is clearly profitable. So I feel like this is where my value should come from and I could comfortably X/F the river if I miss.
On the other hand the average player overfolds to river cbets after calling a turn raise (around 50%). So if the X/F line is 0 EV, cbetting the river seems to be the better option if it is even slightly profitable (which it should be according to this data).
I'm bringing up population analysis here because I only have 18 hands on villain and no useful reads, especially of those rare river situations. And overall I think it's pretty reliable.
