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Never Fold TPTK to a Shove

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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

I was surprised when a commenter stated that my advice to never fold top pair-top kicker (TPTK) to a shove was the worse advice that he ever heard. Let’s define three board cards of the same suit as a flush scare. Let’s define a straight scare if only one card number is necessary to make a straight. If you have TPTK with AK, AQ, or AJ and there is no straight scare or flush scare and the board is not paired, you should never fold. I may fold TPTK with AT, but not AJ+. I may not wish to shove because TPTK is vulnerable, but I will never fold. I win 72% of my All In plays. I win 66% of my All In which go to showdown.

I just checked my PokerTracker stats with this scenario. It does not happen often. With AK, I won 2 of 5 hands. With AQ, I won 4 of 4. With AJ, I won 1 of 1 hand. Thus, overall I have won 7 of 10 times when I called a Shove with TPTK with AJ+.
Ignition - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 73.1 BB
BTN: 116.3 BB
SB: 118.82 BB
BB: 37.74 BB
UTG: 128.28 BB
UTG+1: 84.02 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) BB has 9♠ 8♥

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ Q♠

fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (4 BB, 4 players) T♥ Q♣ 5♠
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 1.9 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.9 BB

Turn: (7.8 BB, 2 players) 8♠
BB checks, Hero bets 7.42 BB, BB calls 7.42 BB

River: (22.64 BB, 2 players) 7♥
BB bets 27.42 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 27.42 BB

BB shows 9♠ 8♥ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 37%, Flop 19%, Turn 20%)
Hero wins 73.62 BB


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22 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

First of all I don't understand why you would limp AQo first in. Especually on a decent limit like NL50 I would raise 3bb and Cbet top pair top kicker. As played your sizing is a little bit weird. You betting pretty small on flop and almost pot size on the turn, What's the reason for this?

River is tricky to call a over shove, but against a short stack I wouldn't mind it.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

I agree that the Flop bet was a bit small. I did not want to chase Villain away with TPTK. But, I should have betted more on the Flop. I limped preflop because that is my general strategy except with TT+ or AK. I am most interested with your opinion of my Never Fold TPTK strategy with AJ+ if there is no flush scare, straight scare, or paired board. Please let me know what you think of this general approach?


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generals007
Joined: 17.09.2007

No, I don't think that's a good strategy. It may be +EV, but at least it can be improved by watching opponent behavior and differentiating c/r, reraises and simple bets. But that doesn't really matter if you general strategy is lacking in other spots. If you don't generally raise AQo preflop you are playing for far smaller pots than you could get if you raised it like a "normal" person, even if being normal doesn't sound so appealing. The flop would-be-cbet is also too weak because the board is connected and is easy to hit, but I think you admitted as much. My advice is to reread strategy, especially WHY it is the way it is. If you feel you don't need to I'd be interested why you think your nit strategy is better than other strategies on offer.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Originally posted by srichards
I agree that the Flop bet was a bit small. I did not want to chase Villain away with TPTK. But, I should have betted more on the Flop. I limped preflop because that is my general strategy except with TT+ or AK. I am most interested with your opinion of my Never Fold TPTK strategy with AJ+ if there is no flush scare, straight scare, or paired board. Please let me know what you think of this general approach?

Sound pretty bad idea as strategy. By limping you keep pots small and induce multiway pots. What that means is that SPR (stack to pot ratio) will be big on flop and when you never fold TPTK all two pairs or sets will get huge implied odds. Good to note that if you get like e.g. 4way pot its really not that unlikely for someone to hit big or improve their few outs on future streets especially if multiple opponents continue.


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Originally posted by ghaleon
Good to note that if you get like e.g. 4way pot its really not that unlikely for someone to hit big or improve their few outs on future streets especially if multiple opponents continue.

I agree. It is more likely with 4way pots for someone to hit big. But, so far refusing to fold TPTK to a shove is working. Obviously, I am not convinced that it is right. That is why I sought the advice of fine players such as you.


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Originally posted by generals007
it can be improved by watching opponent behavior and differentiating c/r, reraises and simple bets.

Again I agree. It is wise to know opponents’ strategies and differentiate between C/R and bets. But, Ignition is an anonymous site. Thus, I seek to find the best general All In strategies to generically apply since I will never know my opponents well. You just helped me when you said that the strategy may be EV+. As far as why I retain my NIT style, please review this thread statistics, https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=3076109#post3076109


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generals007
Joined: 17.09.2007

Originally posted by srichards
You just helped me when you said that the strategy may be EV+.

May be. Maybe you're also just losing money in the long run. I can't see how that helps you. And even if it is, there are better strategies that give you more EV. That was the point of my statement.
Imagine you have a bot as an opponent that always shows you his hole cards, calls every regular preflop bet and then calls ANY flop bet. The strategy "do preflop hand selection, then go all in on EVERY flop" is +EV. But it's much better to look at your hole cards, the board and his hole cards before you make the decision.
The argument "well then it just takes longer" is also bad, because there are other situations that are decidedly not +EV, ever, so your failure to extract maximum value preflop and failures to find a better strategy with TPTK may make your whole play -EV. It probably doesn't on lower limits. But it may. I don't know how many hands you have, but given the stats in the other thread it's not many.

Originally posted by srichards
As far as why I retain my NIT style, please review this thread statistics, Fear of the All In

Yes, I saw this thread before. Using statistics to find leaks and improve your play is great, but you're not doing that. The two statements I see are "for these few hands with TPTK it worked" and "I'm winning in general". I don't know how you can deduce from this that playing NIT is not a leak. You may win 5 times what you do per 100 hands if you play differently. And the amount of hands you have on your "never fold" strategy is simply not enough to deduce anything, especially because you're dealing with such high variance in those spots.

Originally posted by ghaleon
Sound pretty bad idea as strategy. By limping you keep pots small and induce multiway pots. What that means is that SPR (stack to pot ratio) will be big on flop and when you never fold TPTK all two pairs or sets will get huge implied odds. Good to note that if you get like e.g. 4way pot its really not that unlikely for someone to hit big or improve their few outs on future streets especially if multiple opponents continue.

This is right. You're giving your opponents huge implied odds with the combination of your NIT play and the decision to not fold TPTK. That's on top of the individual failures of those respective strategies, like:
- failing to steal blinds from players that are too tight
- failing to build a pot when you're ahead
- inducing mistakes in your opponents by being able to play in position more
- failing to play pots with decent hands against even worse hands
- failing to build pots even harder against good players that notice you play that tight
- losing whole stacks to players that notice you play that tight by them playing pockets and suited connectors and you not being able to let your hand go when they hit a set or straight

Anyway, I wish you good luck in NL50 no matter what you decide to do. As an aside, I also recommend having 2500BB, not 1500BB, before you move up, again because of variance, but you do you.


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vengeance77
Joined: 18.04.2010

If you are winning this way you should be running hella hot and your opponents should be somehow brainless to pay you off:D, but I think at NL50 they should notice you and adjust, because it is so easy to play vs Calling stations;)


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Originally posted by generals007
Anyway, I wish you good luck in NL50 no matter what you decide to do. As an aside, I also recommend having 2500BB, not 1500BB, before you move up, again because of variance, but you do you.

Thanks for wishing me luck at NL50. I may embrace your suggestion to wait until 2,500 BB instead of 1,500 BB before moving up. I get the impression that some players (not you) resent my success with methods contrary to what they have been taught. If I fail at NL50, I will let you guys know. But, if I continue to succeed, perhaps some players will become more open minded. But, I disagree with your statement that I do not use statistics to find leaks. I carefully study PokerTracker LeakTracker. I look for anomalies in my play. For instance, I already admitted that my WWSF is very low. So, I always wonder if my out of range play is cleverly helping me, or will it hurt me as I increase stakes. Thanks for your advice. I learn a lot at this forum.


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vengeance77
Joined: 18.04.2010

I cannot win in long term when choosing so many - EV decisions! The way you play is simply -EV in many occasions and in many other is simply 0 EV or slightly positive on EV and the optimal line is far a way!
No offense I am just strait and i am telling you for your own good! If you are winning it is only because you are running super hot!


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Thanks Guys! I was never very confident in my Never Fold TPTK strategy. After listening to your advice and losing quite a few hands during the last week with this strategy, I have learned better. Ignition is anonymous and I will never have enough stats to gauge the All In aggressiveness of my opponent. Thus, I will simply fold shoves when I only have TPTK. I pride myself in being patient. I will wait for better All In opportunities.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

I've watched this thread all week.
Thanks for posting such an interesting question.

My first thought was "always" and "never" rarely apply to poker situations.
In poker, the answer is usually "it depends" <== note how I said "usually" not "always" :coolface:

Spoiler

"Never fold TPTK to a shove" is concentrating too much on the value of our own hand -- or at least I think so.
Stack sizes, prior action and player tendencies are all factors that go into the decision.

Even on anonymous tables, we can usually get a slight indication of a player's tendency.

Cheers,
VS


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eetwidomayloh
Joined: 08.03.2012

Limping with AQ is a disaster waiting to happen.
u have no idea where u r.
q7 has u beat!! u allow to much...
just bad play...


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by eetwidomayloh
Limping with AQ is a disaster waiting to happen.

I think limping is rarely +EV in any poker variant in the long run, regardless of what your cards are.

Sure, you can find individual hands where limping worked out, but poker is a long term game.

Cheers,
VS


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

well vorpal this is not true. In some ICM spots you to incorporate limping ranges and of course if you have reads. In a HU environment you want to incorporate limping ranges tu (Holdem)

Greets

maniac


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generals007
Joined: 17.09.2007

I can only see myself having a limping range at all if I'm playing against opponents who raise and 3bet preflop almost every time. That goes for HU as well, although I know many opponents on NL50 HU that I must assume play profitably do have a limping range.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by maniac
well vorpal this is not true. In some ICM spots you to incorporate limping ranges and of course if you have reads. In a HU environment you want to incorporate limping ranges tu (Holdem)

Greets

maniac

Yeah, you're quite correct maniac -- Limping is quite important in tournaments.
I probably should have a limping range in cash games too, but I don't.
The main situation where I limp is in those hands where there are already several limpers, and an iso-raise isn't likely to get rid of anyone.
Another situation is when I hold something like 7♣:8♣: and I can see a flop from 1BB.

But open limp in a cash game?
I can't think of when I might do so -- unless trapping vs BB from SB.

Cheers,
VS

I'm not really a Hold'em player,


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Originally posted by generals007
I can only see myself having a limping range at all if I'm playing against opponents who raise and 3bet preflop almost every time. That goes for HU as well, although I know many opponents on NL50 HU that I must assume play profitably do have a limping range.

This is exactly why I abandoned normal preflop strategy in April 2019. Players were frequently 3 betting me away from hands that I would normally play. Thus, I started limping to prevent being chased away by 3 bets.


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hi srichards, i don't know about your pokerstrategy, but i enjoyed the heatbreakers song you've posted earlier on the forums :sifflote:


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