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Set Queens vs raise flop - call or push?

5 Posts
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mafioso03
Joined: 16.08.2010

PokerStars - €0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: €5.09 (101.8 bb)
SB: €2.61 (52.2 bb)
BB: €5.00 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG): €6.50 (130 bb)
MP: €4.01 (80.2 bb)
CO: €5.00 (100 bb)

SB posts €0.02, BB posts €0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.07) Hero has Q♦: Q♣:
Hero raises to €0.15, MP calls €0.15, CO calls €0.15, 3 folds

Flop: (€0.52, 3 players) Q♠: J♠: T♣:
Hero bets €0.35, MP raises to €1.54, fold, Hero ???

I have no stats from the villain.
This raise on a wet flop shows strength, so i put him in a range like: JJ-TT,AQs+,98s,AQo+,98o
Against this range i have an equity about 48%.

So, should i call and be prepared to a shove from the villain on the turn, or re-raise all-in on the flop?
Opinions please.


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4 replies
Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

I think because of the board texture it’s a jam or fold, a lot of bad turns that I wouldn’t want to see. I might be wrong but with top set I might call. Villain could have k9s, T9s for a straight ( 8 combos) I expect him to raise AK pre-flop most of the time, we are ahead of JTs (2combos) we are beating JJ and TT (6combos) he could be doing this with FD or combo draw which we are ahead of and we have full house outs. I could be wrong though folding might be best since he has decent stack after his bet, I wouldn’t really want to call and be OOP on the turn with that board texture


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Dandiiik
Joined: 19.07.2009

I dont think folding is an option here. Yes there are some hands which beat us but many other hands which a weak player (he doesnt have full stack) might overplay like flush draws or open enders. Your range is very pessimistic imo. I would add some Kx hands, ace flush draws. You also forgot about two pairs which are definitely in his range. Even against this range: JJ-TT,AQs,K9s,QTs+,JTs,98s,AQo,K9o,QTo+,JTo,98o, which is still very pessimistic without any draws you have 61%.

I prefer shoving flop. Reason being that there are many turn cards we dont wanna see. And not just that they might complete his draws and be scary for us. There are also many cards which might kill the action from his point of view. If he has AQ with no spade for instance, and 9s comes, he might fold it and you lose value.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

easy bet shove flop because its wet and you are most of the time ahead.


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mafioso03
Joined: 16.08.2010

Thank you all for the comments.
I shoved flop and villain showed AK. Shit happens :f_drink::f_drink::f_thumbsup:


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