Originally posted by monteCarlol
@VorpalF2F @RedsYNWA that makes a lot of sense.
Here is what I think and I acknowledge that I could be mistaken.
I am not sure if the generell population on NL2 is capable of frequently semi-bluffing with flush draws in spots like this. I have an intuition that villain has a strong value hand. I give raises on the turn tons of credit and I think it might be ok to deviate from the theoretically optimal play and to make an exploitive fold here? (Even though that makes me exploitable)
If I was playing vs a player that I know is really strong, I agree that a call is probably +EV here.
Nevertheless I am open to changing my mind about this.
All correct IMO.
Unless strong read on Villain, and by this I mean you already saw him bluff raising turn on an action board (there are 2 FD, paired board and a few straights are already possible), this is a fold, end of story.
I only have 10.5k hands in NL2, but here is the ONLY time I called a CR turn and saw showdown, feel free to make your own conclusions:
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.02(BB)
SB ($1.50) [VPIP: 41.8% | PFR: 12.7% | AGG: 34.3% | Hands: 56]
BB ($1.44) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 46.4% | Turn Agg: 26.3% | River Agg: 30.8% | 3-Bet: 4.9% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 18.2% | Hands: 185]
CO ($3.94) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 146]
HERO ($2.48) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 31.4% | Flop Agg: 34.6% | Turn Agg: 29.8% | River Agg: 25.8% | 3-Bet: 6.4% | 4-Bet: 7.6% | Hands: 10511]
Dealt to Hero: Q♠ Q♣
CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.07, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.05
Hero SPR on Flop: [9.13 effective]
Flop ($0.15): 9♠ J♦ J♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.08 (Rem. Stack: $2.33), BB Calls $0.08 (Rem. Stack: $1.29)
Turn ($0.31): 9♠ J♦ J♣ 9♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.20 (Rem. Stack: $2.13), BB Raises To $0.50 (Rem. Stack: $0.79), HERO Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $1.83)
River ($1.31): 9♠ J♦ J♣ 9♥ 9♣
BB Bets $0.79 (allin), HERO Calls $0.79 (Rem. Stack: $1.04)