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AA - river decision with overpair

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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

hi all

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $11.60 (116 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $10 (100 bb)
MP1: $10.47 (104.7 bb) - regular, 17/14/5,9, 9bb/100, 4,1 millions hand - 32k winnings,
flop raises and check: 12, river: 27, river: 30, river bet vs. missed IP: 37

MP2: $8.21 (82.1 bb)
MP3: $19.37 (193.7 bb)
CO: $6.81 (68.1 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A♥: A♦:
Hero raises to $0.30, MP1 calls $0.30, MP2 calls $0.30, 5 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 6♠: J♦: K♦: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.67, MP1 calls $0.67, MP2 folds

Turn: ($2.39) 8♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.52, MP1 calls $1.52

River: ($5.43) 5♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $1.71, Hero calls $1.71

This is the second best hand in my river check range after the Kjs, but his sizing extremly looks like thin value bet. Have you seen bluff with this river size from a regular? :thinking:
My WTSD is very low and my Wonsd is 57, so I think his value bet range is probably 1 combo of JJ, 2 combos of 66, and Td9d. I block A high flusses... QdTd is standard pre fold to me.
What do you think?

Results:

Spoiler

$8.85 pot ($0.40 rake)
Final Board: 6♠: J♦: K♦: 8♦: 5♠:
Hero mucked A♥: A♦: and lost (-$4.20 net)
MP1 showed J♠: J♥: and won $8.45 ($4.25 net)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Interesting that you have 4,1 million hands on villain. That's a sick amount I think.
Than you should have decent reads on villian as well,
I would most likely just Cbet all streets around half pot for value and if you face a raise on river I would just fold. Now you get decent odds to call the small bat and makes it tough to fold I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

hi SDK1987

Thank you for your post. :f_thumbsup:
I wrote his stats from statname. :coolface:


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