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Semi-bluff math

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2ofspades
Joined: 27.08.2022

Hello everyone. I'm studying fundamentals and confused about about semi-bluff math. I know its all depends of the opponent and fold equity but I have a question about simple poker math.

Do you calculate pot odds or bluff breakeven% when you make semi bluffs (non-all-in)? Which is the right one?

For example bluff breakeven%, we need to win the hand 25% of the time when we bet 33% of the pot. And as a pot odds example, we need to win 20% of the time when we call 33% of the pot. Can we think like we can bet (instead of check-call as aggressor or making float bet on the flop etc) 33% of the pot and need to win 20% of the time? Like we're not facing bets but we're betting with amount of what pot odds says, instead of bluff breakeven%. If its like that, isn't it better to calculate it like pot odds instead of bluff breakeven%? Cause its not pure bluff and we have some equity.


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi 2ofspades,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :welcome:

Originally posted by 2ofspades
For example bluff breakeven%, we need to win the hand 25% of the time when we bet 33% of the pot. And as a pot odds example, we need to win 20% of the time when we call 33% of the pot. Can we think like we can bet (instead of check-call as aggressor or making float bet on the flop etc) 33% of the pot and need to win 20% of the time? Like we're not facing bets but we're betting with amount of what pot odds says, instead of bluff breakeven%. If its like that, isn't it better to calculate it like pot odds instead of bluff breakeven%? Cause its not pure bluff and we have some equity.

If I have a semi-bluff, I like to give opponents odds to call — or slightly worse odds.
If it is a pure bluff — like a CBet where you missed the flop, but it hits your range, I'll bet 1/2 pot.

As things pass the flop, too many other factors come into play.

Also, don't forget implied odds — if the opponent and you both have deep stacks, it is worth it to try to build a pot with a semi-bluff, because if you hit you might win a very large pot.

Against very short stacks, I don't bother unless I think I can win outright.

note that I am not an expert

Cheers,
VS


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2ofspades
Joined: 27.08.2022

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Hi 2ofspades,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :welcome:

Originally posted by 2ofspades
For example bluff breakeven%, we need to win the hand 25% of the time when we bet 33% of the pot. And as a pot odds example, we need to win 20% of the time when we call 33% of the pot. Can we think like we can bet (instead of check-call as aggressor or making float bet on the flop etc) 33% of the pot and need to win 20% of the time? Like we're not facing bets but we're betting with amount of what pot odds says, instead of bluff breakeven%. If its like that, isn't it better to calculate it like pot odds instead of bluff breakeven%? Cause its not pure bluff and we have some equity.

If I have a semi-bluff, I like to give opponents odds to call — or slightly worse odds.
If it is a pure bluff — like a CBet where you missed the flop, but it hits your range, I'll bet 1/2 pot.

As things pass the flop, too many other factors come into play.

Also, don't forget implied odds — if the opponent and you both have deep stacks, it is worth it to try to build a pot with a semi-bluff, because if you hit you might win a very large pot.

Against very short stacks, I don't bother unless I think I can win outright.

note that I am not an expert

Cheers,
VS

Thank you so much! :)

Cheers!


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