[Closed] NL100 54s.

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Fongie

Joined: 02.12.2006

Posts: 3,072

12.02.2010, 12:06 0

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Hero ($110)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($153)
BTN ($179)

Dealt to Hero 5♦ 4♦

Hero raises to $3, fold, fold, BTN calls $3, fold, fold

FLOP ($7.50) 9♦ J♦ 8♠

Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

TURN ($17.50) 9♦ J♦ 8♠ 7♦

Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero raises to $38,

I usually don't even think about c/r turn, but I thought this was a good spot. He never has air coming from the flop (villain is reg w/ 60% fcb over large sample), so he's probably betting a jack and a ten for value/protection (4AF too).

Question is,... does it look too strong? Will he fold a J or T? Is it better to just bet 3 streets for value then? Is my raise too big?

I had a very aggro image here, but I'd like to know if this could be good with a sort of normal image aswell

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1 reply

Bierbaer

Joined: 27.05.2005

Posts: 3,322

12.02.2010, 12:26 0

I make it $6 on the flop.

Let's look at his range:
He is raising sets, straights and 2pairs on the flop.
So his range looks something like: {TT, T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs, AJ}.
So 10 combinations of straights and 18 combinations of top pair.
He also has some combinations of flushes but against these it doesn't matter what you do so i'll just disregard them.

So a bet on the turn is better even with a normal image.
By betting he has a hard time folding Jx and he will mostly raise a straight himself.
But if you check/raise he could actually be bet/folding a straight, even though you have an aggro image. He will certainly fold top pair.

But you'll get another bet out of him on the river if he has a straight (and just calls - sometimes he's still raising himself).

Variance giveth and variance taketh away.

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