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[Closed] NL 400 FR SET vs Passiv push

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nubbe2
Joined: 08.04.2009

Villain is Passive fish - that runs around 45/5 and AF less then 1 , small sampz but he is passive.
He is the guy that check call with second nuts two streets and check back river.

Since he push turn i don't get really good odds , i think he might check call 33 and 66 turn. Am i ever ahead here ?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($551)
BB ($581)
Hero ($519)
UTG+1 ($401)
UTG+2 ($439)
MP1 ($83.09)
CO ($424)
BTN ($358)

Dealt to Hero 7♣ 7♥

Hero raises to $12, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12, SB calls $10, BB calls $8

FLOP ($60) 7♦ 3♠ 6♣

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $40, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $40

TURN ($140) 7♦ 3♠ 6♣ A♦

BB checks, Hero bets $104, BB raises to $529 (AI), Hero ?


3 replies

Hi,

there are only two hands which you beat:
- AA isn't that probable because of preflop action
- that leaves 54o/54s which villain could easily hold

The line c/c, c/r oop screams for the nuts.
With your read it is possible to fold but it would be really sick if he shows 66 or even 33.
But i would not be able to fold top set and stack off or hope for my 10 outs.

What did you do and what did he hold, if seen?
Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin


TheLastNail
Joined: 30.05.2008

i would bet bigger on both turn and flop, we wanna extract + protect, so my odds would look a bit favorable tow a call, but still not sufficient if i knew he holds exactly 54.

vs 54 we have 22.7% equity on turn, pot odds there: 425 to call for 1198 = 35.5% -those we need for EV=0 call decision.

i agree that this opp never bluffs+ in this spot he has at least 2 pair always. lets count some handcombos: preflop it easy to give him every single 45o, 45s, all 33,66,67,6A.

some math:
say, he plays 90% of 45 hands this way, so lets say 14 out of all 16 combos.. fe w 5 :diamond:4 :diamond: he has board so crushed he might just call again and 1/15 of other times he might have raised on flop or he just calles; so vs 14handcombos we have 22.7%

there are 3 combos of both 33, 66 and 3 other of 67- so total of 9, i think he definitely plays this hands like this sometimes, u would have to have a ridiculously big sample to be sure of he is scared himself of 54 and doesnt play agro ... but-- fish wait for A to come so u hit and then they shove with set expeciting u to turn AK, isnt it so even with passive?

your equity vs 33, 66, 67 is 98.5%

The total minimal equity needed, as said: 35.5% hence:
14* 0.227 - x* 0.985 =0.355 ---> x =~ 3.1

so he just has to play 33, 66, 67 third of the time this way for u to make a good call here.. also: i personally think he might be more temted to slowplay 45 again, rather than slowplay his 2 pair/sets .. coz he might think now is the time to protect and get it in vs Ax

also: i didnt count A6, A3, A7 hands at all, and there might hop up 1 or 2 handcombos of those played this way too..

overall, i dont think its possible (good) to fold here, although, as said, u are behind in total prolly ~75%-85% of the time and its exactly the str8. Its just that the equity vs his remaining 15-25% is just monstrous, while even vs the str8 u are drawing to the moderate 10 outs, which makes it equityvise rly "good" -okeish


nubbe2
Joined: 08.04.2009

Originally posted by AninIII

What did you do and what did he hold, if seen?

Anin

I called ofc.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($551)
BB ($581)
Hero ($519)
UTG+1 ($401)
UTG+2 ($439)
MP1 ($83.09)
CO ($424)
BTN ($358)

Dealt to Hero 7♣ 7♥

Hero raises to $12, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12, SB calls $10, BB calls $8

FLOP ($60) 7♦ 3♠ 6♣

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $40, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $40

TURN ($140) 7♦ 3♠ 6♣ A♦

BB checks, Hero bets $104, BB raises to $529 (AI), Hero calls $363 (AI)

RIVER ($1,074) 7♦ 3♠ 6♣ A♦ 5♣

BB shows 4♣ 5♠
(Pre 17%, Flop 65.1%, Turn 77.3%)

Hero shows 7♣ 7♥
(Pre 83%, Flop 34.9%, Turn 22.7%)

BB wins $1,071

TheLastNail really good answer. ty.


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