Harrier's Blog - Mixed Games & Mixed Drinks

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
From what I've seen the trick in Stud is TAG -- and even more of the T and the AG than in Hold'em -- would you agree?

Yes, including the T > AG part, because it seems like limping with drawing hands (straights and flushes) is perfectly acceptable, since you want to play against multiple players with this type of hand. With high starting pairs, on the other hand, you want to play against fewer players, ideally heads up.

One mistake I often made recently was to chase too much. I think Sklansky once said something along the lines of "if you're going to fold, fold early". One example would be flush draws, which I believe pretty much always need to be folded on 4th street if you don't hit your fourth suit.

Other than that, the game seems to be all about two pairs, which I have read are the most common winning hand. That means that high kickers in addition to ok-ish pairs are good because they serve as a draw to a two pair that could end up dominating other two pairs.

Originally posted by Harrier88
One mistake I often made recently was to chase too much. I think Sklansky once said something along the lines of "if you're going to fold, fold early". One example would be flush draws, which I believe pretty much always need to be folded on 4th street if you don't hit your fourth suit.

Rule #1: Don't chase

Since Stud is a limit game, pot odds rule.
One of these days I'll try to figure out the odds of getting two more of a suit, assuming you hold 3 at the outset, and there are no dead members of that suit.

How about now?
8-handed FL Stud.
You hold 3 hearts.
There are no dead hearts.
Since you can see 10 cards, there are only 42 unknowns, and 10 of them are hearts.
We'll further assume that you're heads up going into 4th street.
The odds of hitting 1 on 4th street are 10/42 (32/42 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 5th street are 10/41 (31/41 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 6th street are 10/40 (30/40 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 7th street are 10/39 (29/39 to miss)
Multiplying all of the "miss" numbers together, you'll see that there is only a 42% chance of missing on all 4 streets.
So 58% chance of getting 1 heart out of 4 tries.
You can see the flaw right there -- you need two
Let's change it so you have hit your 4-flush on 4th street.
The odds of hitting 1 on 5th street are 9/41 (32/41 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 6th street are 9/40 (31/40 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 7th street are 9/39 (30/39 to miss)
Leaving us 46% chance of missing all 3 -- or 54% to hit the flush.

Let's change it so you miss on 4th, but hit on 5th.
Now you only have two streets.
The odds of hitting 1 on 6th street are 9/40 (31/40 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 7th street are 9/39 (30/39 to miss)
60% chance of missing -- so only 40% chance of getting the 4th suit member in the last two draws.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Let's change it so you have hit your 4-flush on 4th street.
The odds of hitting 1 on 5th street are 9/41 (32/41 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 6th street are 9/40 (31/40 to miss)
The odds of hitting 1 on 7th street are 9/39 (30/39 to miss)
Leaving us 46% chance of missing all 3 -- or 54% to hit the flush.

What I've heard before is that the chance of completing a flush after hitting a 4-flush on 4th street is 47.16%. Your odds seem to imply that there are 50 cards left after the deal on 4th street, but it should be 48, because four cards have been dealt to us at that point. Is this where the difference comes from?

Note that 47.16% are still pretty decent odds considering that there are antes and some bets probably have been invested by that point too, not to mention that we would usually prefer to play against multiple opponents with a hand like this.

As for hitting on 5th street, what needs to be considered is that the bet will have doubled at this point, so proceeding from there on is much more expensive.

Tonight's session was a complete brick, but at least without any rebuys. 8-Game got really close to ITM, but I got some nasty boards in the late PLO section. Also made some mistakes. Joined the Stud a little late again and was pretty much completely card dead all throughout.

It wasn't a complete bust, however. I looked into Stud8 recently and would love to give it a go. There is a tournament that would fit into my grinding times, but unfortunately, it's $16.50. Certainly too high to take any practice shots at it like I did in Stud, and even if I was confident in my skills, I wouldn't want to play that high in this format at the moment. So instead, I practiced some $0.25/$0.50 cash games and made a few bucks in them.

It was already quite educational, I found out the hard way about some traps to avoid, while also finding out about things that work. If I had avoided some mistakes and got a little more lucky in some spots, like that one time where I put someone all in with a low straight, only to have him river a full house and get away with half the pot, I even could have earned some nice winnings, possibly even session-saving.

I will continue to splash around in there and try to absorb some new concepts.

Also: new cocktail creation!

We all had fun with Nsavov's Underpants, but I was also inspired by a funny little story about our grindette reaching a final table on Full Tilt Poker back in the day. It's always a nice story to reference during our rail chats, especially when one of us gets close to FT.

So this is my newest creation in honor of that memorable story, the "Final Table":

Ingredients:
40 ml of coffee liqueur
30 ml of crème de cacao (brown)
20 ml of Frangelico

Shake the ingredients with crushed ice and strain into a chilled martini glass.

I might change my mind about the ratio at one point, but for now, I think the 40/30/20 ratio works quite well. I look forward to what other people have to say about it, but it seems like a nice after dinner drink to me, if you don't think too much about the story that inspired this drink.

And now you know how to make a Final Table, even when the cards are not coming your way.

What an honor! :mdr::mdr::mdr::mdr:
This cocktail looks like diarrhoe - which it indeed should!

I think you guys can now guess the story behind it. :facepalm::mdr: Yes, it indeed has to do with diarrhoe and a stomach flu. While I was playing an MTT and just recovered (or thought I had) from a nasty stomach flu, I felt the urge to fart. So, I was home alone, I didn´t have to behave, so I decided to let it out. But it was not just air coming out but .......... :facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:

Couldn´t immediately change underpants and shorts, I was sitting at the final table of an MTT. Oh sh!t (indeed!)! While I was playing the tournament at the FT I was sitting in my own .....(you know!)

Eventually I placed 4th in that MTT and finally could clean myself up and change clothes ........

This story became a running gag between Harrier and me

Originally posted by Primrose6789
This cocktail looks like diarrhoe - which it indeed should!

Well, it doesn't taste like diarrhea. Feel free to try during your next visit, I look forward to your feedback.

As for real final tables, there's always a solution...

YOU TROLL! :mdr::mdr::mdr::mdr:

Congratulations Sir, this qualifies you as a candidate for "Troll of the Year 2020"

This is exactly why whenever someone asks a poker question, the answer is always "Depends"

Aaaw, I see Vorpal has also very good trolling skills.

But Mods can´t be trolls, or can they? If yes, Vorpal would qualify too. :f_tongue::f_ugly:

Mods have special troll signatures for use when necessary.
I regret not deploying the little fella earlier today

cheers...
VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Mods have special troll signatures for use when necessary.
I regret not deploying the little fella earlier today

cheers...
VS

Soooo, you´re IN .....

You´re a candidate for Troll of the Year ♠_thumbsup:♠_ugly:

Originally posted by Primrose6789
Soooo, you´re IN .....

You´re a candidate for Troll of the Year ♠_thumbsup:♠_ugly:

Well, it's not like he stands any chance either way...

I predict a Mod of the Year hattrick for Vorpal instead.

Poker has been going up and down recently, and we're still pretty much where we were a week ago.

What has been bothering me most is the lack of success in Stud recently, which offsets some of my earlier cashes in there. Aside from cutting into my profits, it makes it harder for me to estimate whether I can expect to grind them profitably or not. I got unlucky in many spots, but is that really it? At the same time, I got lucky in some spots in the ones I cashed.

Really hard to tell, but I think I should at least give it another week. Meanwhile, I hope the other games can pick up the slack a little.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Poker has been going up and down recently, and we're still pretty much where we were a week ago.

I'm guessing poker has been swingy since it began -- whenever that was...

Originally posted by Harrier88

Originally posted by Primrose6789
Soooo, you´re IN .....

You´re a candidate for Troll of the Year ♠_thumbsup:♠_ugly:

I predict a Mod of the Year hattrick for Vorpal instead.

With that many ups and downs, and Stud still going poorly, a first place finish would have been exactly what we need. Unfortunately, we barely missed, in a pretty sickening way.

I was heads-up with an opponent who wasn't shy about snowing at all, and who had previously avoided some really convenient cooler spots that would have taken many other players out then and there.

He couldn't get away from that one, where I managed to put him all-in with a much superior 3-card hand which I figured had a good chance of winning unimproved. Looks like he was hoping to hit any Badugi and wishing that it would hold, but see for yourself.

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Badugi Pot Limit - 1,400/2,800 - 2 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

SB (Hero): 192,998 (69 bb)
BB: 44,002 (16 bb)

Deal: (4,200) Hero is SB with 5♦ 3♠ 6♦ 3♦
Hero raises to 5,600, BB calls 2,800

Draw One: (11,200) 5♦ 3♠ T♦ A♣ (2 players)
BB draws 1, SB (Hero) draws 6d 3d
BB checks, Hero bets 5,600, BB raises to 28,000, Hero raises to 50,400, BB calls 10,402 (all-in)

Draw Two: (100,002) 5♦ 3♠ A♣ 8♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
BB draws 1, SB (Hero) draws Td

Draw Three: (88,004) (2 players, 1 all-in)
BB stands pat, SB (Hero) draws 8s

Total pot: 88,004

Showdown:
SB (Hero) shows 5♦ 3♠ A♣ A♥ (a 3-card: 5,3,A)
BB shows Q♦ 7♠ 4♣ K♥ (a Badugi: K,Q,7,4)
BB wins 88,004

The chance of him missing the Badugi at that point was 62%, while I had an equal 38% chance of making mine. Not sure what the total chances of winning would have been, taking all of that into account, but it was definitely a good opportunity to take it down right there.

Later in the game, with stacks almost even, I hit a similarly promising 3-card hand and he decided to get aggressive yet again. This time, I went for it, hoping to either hit my monster hand, catch him snowing and folding - again, or take it down unimproved.

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Badugi Pot Limit - 1,800/3,600 - 2 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

SB: 118,204 (33 bb)
BB (Hero): 118,796 (33 bb)

Deal: (5,400) Hero is BB with 4♠ A♣ 3♥ 9♠
SB calls 1,800, Hero raises to 7,200, SB calls 3,600

Draw One: (14,400) 4♠ A♣ 3♥ 2♥ (2 players)
BB (Hero) draws 9s, SB draws 2
Hero bets 7,200, SB raises to 36,000, Hero raises to 111,596 (all-in), SB calls 75,004 (all-in)

Draw Two: (237,000) 4♠ A♣ 2♥ Q♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)
BB (Hero) draws 3h, SB stands pat

Draw Three: (236,408) (2 players, 2 all-in)
BB (Hero) stands pat, SB stands pat

Total pot: 236,408

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows 4♠ A♣ 2♥ Q♦ (a Badugi: Q,4,2,A)
SB shows 2♠ 7♥ 9♣ 3♦ (a Badugi: 9,7,3,2)
SB wins 236,408

The sad thing is that this is the kind of spot he avoided against me several times earlier, where I caught some much better Badugis after drawing two, but only got him to bet the pot and fold.

On the third draw, I was hoping that by standing pat, I could either get my opponent to break any high-ish Badugis, or maybe win with the Queen somehow, which wasn't impossible, considering that my opponent didn't mind standing on Kings. The chance of beating his hand by drawing to my A24 on that last draw would have been 13%, by the way.

Despite the decent $37.71 payout, this tournament was a very big disappointment. I really can't let spots like this go to waste. At least I have done a pretty good job otherwise converting heads-up opportunities so far this year, which is where the really big pay jumps occur. Still really hurts to miss that one.

Man -- so frustrating!

It sure is...

What I didn't mention is that I made another final table in the Badugi the night before, so at least things are going pretty well overall in there, with us approaching $100 in Badugi profits this month now. However, this is also the second time this month that I have lost in the heads-up phase. I hope this doesn't start a new trend, we need to convert those heads-up spots.

We also cashed in 11 out of 18 8-Game tournaments this month, though it should be noted that I also had to use five additional bullets in there, and two of them bricked anyway. If I ever play higher stakes, I won't have that luxury.

Stud has been on a dry spell after some early successes, as I mentioned before. I hope I can turn things around next week, otherwise it might be back to the drawing board. Doing some more reading on this game would probably be a good idea. I should be somewhat solid in my starting hands selection by now, but I believe I may need a better plan for the later streets.

Well, today I can't be blamed for not getting anything going in the Stud, looks like the game didn't run this time.

I tried another HORSE instead, but I decided that this one should no longer be part of my grind. Obviously, the results have been bad, after yet another bustout, but it turns out that it's not just the lack of 2-7 TD, NL Hold'em and PLO that makes me perform much worse than in 8-Game over there - the blind structure is also much faster. So while it looks like I can achieve some reasonably consistent success in 8-Game by waiting for my spots, it just doesn't seem to work in this more fast paced game.

Stud will definitely replace HORSE as the third game for now, I just hope that I can improve my results in there to give me a reason to keep playing.

As for Badugi, it almost seemed like the polar opposite to last night's session in some way. While I ended up losing with a big chip lead in that one, this time, I barely managed to stagger to the final table and then somehow managed to carry my stack all the way to 3rd place, after hitting the right hands at the right time, this one probably being the most spectacular:

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Badugi Pot Limit - 800/1,600 - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: 60,958 (38 bb)
MP: 133,963 (84 bb)
CO (Hero): 4,040 (3 bb)
BU: 27,476 (17 bb)
SB: 126,063 (79 bb)
BB: 4,500 (3 bb)

Deal: (2,400) Hero is CO with 2♠ 5♥ 9♦ 4♦
UTG calls 1,600, MP calls 1,600, Hero raises to 4,040 (all-in), BTN calls 4,040, SB calls 3,240, 1 fold, UTG calls 2,440, MP calls 2,440

Draw One: (21,800) 2♠ 5♥ 4♦ K♦ (5 players, 1 all-in)
SB draws 1, UTG draws 2, MP draws 2, CO (Hero) draws 9d, BU draws 1
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, BTN bets 21,800, 3 players fold

Draw Two: (43,600) 2♠ 5♥ 4♦ A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)
CO (Hero) draws Kd, BU stands pat

Draw Three: (21,800) (2 players, 1 all-in)
CO (Hero) draws 5h, BU stands pat

Total pot: 21,800

Showdown:
BU shows 2♦ 9♥ 6♠ K♣ (a Badugi: K,9,6,2)
CO (Hero) shows 2♠ 4♦ A♥ 3♣ (a Badugi: 4,3,2,A)
CO (Hero) wins 21,800

It certainly feels a lot better to finish that way rather than losing at heads-up the way I did last time, even though I finished one place below it.

Got a 14th place in the 8-Game for $5.08. Made some questionable moves in the late NL Hold'em part which may have cost me an even better finish, but on the whole, not much to complain about.

Oh, and I just noticed: This makes three Badugi FTs in a row. :f_drink:

Certainly a nice development after going through a bit of a dry spell the week before in that game.

Let's make it four tomorrow.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Let's make it four tomorrow.

Didn't quite happen, sorry. Pretty unlucky session overall, with a few coolers leading to an early exit in the Stud, and a nasty suckout that prevented me from advancing in the Badugi. 8-Game cashed, but those $2.73 aren't going to help much.

Better luck tomorrow.