89s v UTG

Just suppose you don't have 98s, would you call OTF with 55 with 3 overcards? I guess you won't. You don't to much A5s that would call flop - Ah5h,As5s,Ad5d that would call flop with backdoor. Sets would raise turn on wet board I guess that you didn't. By river betting we are kickout only 88,99,TT (18), but villain could also have JJ+(21)+ 66-77(6). IF you don't have enough info on WTSD for the villain you most probably gambling.

Yeah, that´s absolutely correct, so raise OTF is the way to go?

I guess that is not the option. Flop is mostly dry vs MP - his range mostly contains broadway cards. there are only 8 combos which you will raise vs mp as bluff (T9s,89s). I guess if you had a set you will most probably call flop, raise turn and value bet river.

I would raise set straight away OTF, so then I can raise 98s?

Originally posted by tiltmonk
Just suppose you don't have 98s, would you call OTF with 55 with 3 overcards? I guess you won't. You don't to much A5s that would call flop - Ah5h,As5s,Ad5d that would call flop with backdoor. Sets would raise turn on wet board I guess that you didn't. By river betting we are kickout only 88,99,TT (18), but villain could also have JJ+(21)+ 66-77(6). IF you don't have enough info on WTSD for the villain you most probably gambling.

I think you forget some Ax of hearts combos, which he would probably bet twice and hope to win at showdown with his marginal showdown value so you need to add AK - AT and A2, A4, A5 of hearts to the hands you fold out as well which makes the bluff almost profitable, now he has a 1:1 call to fold ratio.

I agree we can mix 3bets and cold calls preflop. If there is a fish behind and no aggressive player left to act, then cold calling is fine. Flop could go either way, imo. I think calling is fine because we don't have a monster draw, but still a strong one, and we have position so we will extract value OTT or OTR easier in case we hit, plus we can stab Turn or River unimproved in case he checks.

I also think that this Turn could go either way. If we raise now, we can still represent a set very well, which is now protecting vs flushdraws. I believe many players will fold one-pair hands vs a raise (especially if they know Baluga theorem ). In case he calls, we should probably plan to barrel alot of Rivers.

As played, I think betting the river is "standard" vs unknown because we should expect to have alot of fold equity and we don't have any showdown value.

I like it as played.

Agree that we can mix the 3bet here. Furthermore, I think you read villain well.

Ok, thanks for responses guys :).

Well played. This sequence of plays needs to be in the mix and 9 high is the right hand to barrel river with.