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Overpair facing a turn raise from a capped range

6 Posts
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saseca
Joined: 15.11.2009

Hey, there. It's been a while since I last posted. My question is, should I just ship the turn? I am not worried that he has me beat, since he just called on the flop 4way. If he had a set or J9 I would expect him to raise. I called to let him bluff the river, but is that a good idea? NL10 people are probably not bluffing enough and there are so many bad cards that can come. Am I just needlessly putting myself in a difficult situations on the river?
On the other hand, if I go all in I expect him to fold his draws and don't expect to be called by worse, so it's like I am "shipping for protection". Am I overthinking it? Maybe I just go all in and he calls with a draw when he shouldn't?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $4.85 (48.5 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $14.20 (142 bb)
UTG+2: $12.16 (121.6 bb)
MP1: $9.66 (96.6 bb)
MP2: $12.65 (126.5 bb)
MP3: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.24 (102.4 bb)
BTN: $14.10 (141 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♣: Q♠:
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) 2♣: 9♥: J♥: (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.81, BTN calls $0.81, 2 folds

Turn: ($2.82) 6♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.90, BTN raises to $3.80, Hero calls $1.90

River: ($10.42) 5♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Results:

Spoiler

$10.42 pot ($0.47 rake)
Final Board: 2♣: 9♥: J♥: 6♣: 5♠:
Hero showed Q♣: Q♠: and won $9.95 ($5.04 net)
BTN mucked J♣: T♣: and lost (-$4.91 net)


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I would say that his turn raise looks quite strong. Yea he just called OTF but I think he could have slowplayed a set. 3betting OTT would just isolate against stronger hands. I might just call here, but we could also consider folding.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would fold turn though... Turn raise with less than top 2P is a fold for me.


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MKR
MKR
Joined: 24.04.2005

I agree with la55i and nitrol. Since I "just" have an overpair thats a (clear) fold for me.
The good thing at a full table is: You simply can pick the much better spots for making money and this turn call looks for me as a net-loss in the long run.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

It's true that he will most likelly raise the Flop with a set/two pairs, but we cannot be 100% sure. He definitelly can have those OTT. Using the same logic, we could assume that he would raise FD and OESD OTF, so he doesn't have them now when he raised the Turn because he doesn't have many 87 hands nor club flushdraws.

I would most likelly fold the Turn, but I don't mind calling, especially vs a minraise (but we would most likelly have to check/fold the River imo).


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

No no, don't fold turn. He is min raising. Even if villain has some occasional set here, those are just a few combos and he has way more FD combos or Jx playing fancy. Ship it.


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