Tinsley15
i would raise otf, but i would raise larger vs this guy like at least 3x...i dont think we acomplish much by raising 2.5x..
I agree, if he has a draw, raising him that low still gives him great pot odds to call. If he reraises then it's easy fold.
nitrol
Agree. No raising. Give him a chance to bluff you.
I got no info on him but still, how often would You expect him to donk bet like that with some pure bluff ? And if it's mostly some semi-bluff draw then why would I let him see another card so cheaply ? There are dozens of bad turns for me. Once I face further aggression either from UTG or SB then I just fold.
If he might have draws like that, then he's got quite a bit of equity and by donking that low and me not raising, I'm letting him play perfectly not getting any value.
Board: T♦K♥7♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 37.06% 36.56% 0.50% { AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJo, QJo, J9o }
MP3 62.94% 62.43% 0.50% { KcQc }
When I give him sets and 2 pairs then it's close to coinflip. But I still think raising is good as if he has a set, he's probably going for a reraise and as I mentioned, it makes it easy for me to fold, and if he has a draw then most likely he will just call and I get most value out of that part of his range. Just for the record, if the flop would have been something like K♥:7♦:2♠: - obviously I dont raise.