playing combo draw aggro vs utg

Originally posted by briccius

What line would you recommend in this spot? Check-call twice?

Flop
I like your line on the flop and THIS is the street whee you want to go broke with this hand.
If you go all in on the flop you have 54% chance to make your hand so it is in your best interest to get as much money into the pot as possible=>nice raise on the flop.

Turn
Why do you decide to go all in here ?
You still have 32.6% chance to hit your draw on the river so check/call is the best line i think here.
You can call any bet OTT that is less than 75% pot bet.

Yeah, I agree with this. Getting AI on the flop with a combo draw usually makes you a slight favourite and that’s before considering fold equity.

By the turn, we’re no longer a favourite to complete a draw. Check-call is probably better than a small bet, as we don’t want to face a raise if we bet, and we probably have no fold equity here.

Thank you guys. I like the line x/r flop, x/c turn, but I think betting turn can´t be too bad since we probably do have some fold equity, however small, against villain´s range, and here with the effective SPR, we are commited anyway after a shove by villain. That was also my incentive for shoving right away: my reasoning was if I do bet, I have to call a raise anyway, so why not overbet-shove and maximise my FE.

But I still like the low-variance play check-call OTT. There is one upside to the aggro play, though: we might fold out some draws that dominate us, like AcKc or a random KTs (if it is in villain´s utg range). But AcKc he will most likely reshove OTF, so it is not even in his range OTT very often, and if he has it, he might still call OTT anyway. He might still have AdKd OTT and be forced to fold it.

There might be a problem if we check turn: it kind of turns our hand face up and villain can easily make a bet big enough to price us out (which is not the worst thing in the world, as we just fold). Which line has the highest EV really hinges on how much fold equity we can generate with a turn bet in my opinion.

By the way, of course I can make my flop raise an AI right away. That is of course an easy and profitable way to play the hand. I am not sure it is going to be the one with the highest EV, though.