Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

SH QJo, BTN vs CO

15 Posts
6 Users
0 Reactions
1,558 Views
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $30.57 (122.3 bb)
BB: $59.74 (239 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $23.16 (92.6 bb)
CO: $26.20 (104.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q♥: J♣:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($4.35) 8♠: Q♦: T♠: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.35) K♥: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.35) 9♠: (2 players)
CO bets $5, Hero??

Preflop: Villain plays 21/17 in 122 hands. No info on how he reacts to 3bets. Since he is a reg, I decided to 3bet expecting to be profitable in the long run, mostly due to preflop fold equity.

Flop: Hit TP + GS, but this board hits his range also. I still think that cbetting is fine, especially when the board is that drawy.

Turn: Not very happy with this card because I don't think I'm ahead at that point, so decided to check back and hope for a free showdown.

River: I hit my straight, but AJ and all flushes beat me. I feel that if I call, I'm calling to split at best.


Reply
Quote
14 replies
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I think we still should call. If I construct the range that villain would bet after your x OTT I come to the following conclusion.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdTs8sKh9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 82.76% 82.76% 0.00% { QhJc }
MP3 17.24% 17.24% 0.00% { KK, 99, AKs, AJs, KQs, T9s, 98s, AKo }


Reply
Quote
1AverageJoe1
Joined: 14.04.2015

Originally posted by Hesticus
I think we still should call. If I construct the range that villain would bet after your x OTT I come to the following conclusion.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdTs8sKh9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 82.76% 82.76% 0.00% { QhJc }
MP3 17.24% 17.24% 0.00% { KK, 99, AKs, AJs, KQs, T9s, 98s, AKo }

Don't hands like KK and AK 4b pre? I think we should fold here IMO.


Reply
Quote
vuciitis
Joined: 19.02.2011

well, i think we could rule out him having a flush here, as i dont see a logic reason why NOT to cbet with it. it would be perfect IMO to make you fold Axs which did not connected OTF and AK/AJ vs double barrel.

so the question would be - is he value betting less than Jx here. i see KQ and 99 as reallistic hands he might do this with, there is AA ofc but thats unlikely as most players would stack pre (not all though). and as u need around 28% here id say it is a proffitable call.


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Originally posted by 1AverageJoe1

Originally posted by Hesticus
I think we still should call. If I construct the range that villain would bet after your x OTT I come to the following conclusion.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdTs8sKh9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 82.76% 82.76% 0.00% { QhJc }
MP3 17.24% 17.24% 0.00% { KK, 99, AKs, AJs, KQs, T9s, 98s, AKo }

Don't hands like KK and AK 4b pre? I think we should fold here IMO.

Most of the time, yes. However, villain can lure you in and we should keep the range a little bit wider. However, when we omit these hands we still have enough equity to call.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdTs8sKh9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 71.43% 71.43% 0.00% { QhJc }
MP3 28.57% 28.57% 0.00% { 99, AJs, KQs, T9s, 98s }

The essence here is that we cannot fold such a strong hand on this bet as we do not need to win that often.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You should include AJo too. It is possible.
KQ, T9 will not pay like this all combos. 98 is out too.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

MP2 20.00% 15.00% 5.00% QhJc
MP3 80.00% 75.00% 5.00% AQs-AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, AJo, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Yes, this one looks also good. Plus the essence stays. We cannot fold here but I would def not raise.


Reply
Quote
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
MP2 20.00% 15.00% 5.00% QhJc
MP3 80.00% 75.00% 5.00% AQs-AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, AJo, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc

Originally posted by Hesticus
Yes, this one looks also good. Plus the essence stays. We cannot fold here but I would def not raise.

Don't we need 25% to call?


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008
Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We have 20...


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Hmm.. did I do something wrong with the ranges here? I have the total opposite on equity


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is according to my ranges... :)


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008
Sulfrin
Joined: 28.09.2012

Hy guys, im new here. I enjoy the high level discussion and want to present also my opinion.

Imo his possible vbet Range at the Riv is wider JJ, AK-AJ, KQ-JT and KJs. This gives us an equity about 55%. So we should call here imo. What do you think about the wider range here?

@ Nitrol: Why do you rule out the AQo (except the AsQ)?


Reply
Quote