PLO10 topset, river decision

Well first off when UTG has stats 63/30, your double suited KK defo becomes a 3 bet in relative position. Then on flop you would have overpair and 2 bdflushdraws. Then (if you had 3bet pre) if you had picked up top set on turn, you would have been able to put btn all in on turn. Now you did not 3bet, you checked flop and the pot stayed relatively small, in this case I would seriously consider NOT calling river. At these stakes, even though it woudl only be like 3456 type of hands that make straight here, most of the time vs unknown/tight player, this is not often a bluff. I have seen someone slowplay bottom or middle set here but still happens so seldomly. As played I would fold, you need to call 13 to win 31+6+19+13=69 which means you only have to have the best hand a mere 18% of the time but I would be surprised if you get the 18% though...I would not check fold, you have a valuebet but when raised I would consider folding. Villain gives you a good price to call but imo does so on purpose.

Bet river, but dot bet that 1/5 of a pot. Bet something like 16bb instead. If he raises that, you can happily fold.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Bet river, but dot bet that 1/5 of a pot. Bet something like 16bb instead. If he raises that, you can happily fold.

Ok but if we bet 16 here in this specific case villain only has 29bb left so then it would be calling 13 to win 89 would you still fold then?

Oh, didn't see he was a shorty. Then I would just shove.

Oh hi Kyyberi just wanted to ask you if you fill in range of villain having:

JJ,44,22, 36,A3

on this board J42K5, on the river you only have 25% equity. Does that change your choice of action on the river?

That cannot be his range, as I would not believe him checking sets on the flop as the last one to act.

And that cannot be his range on the river before our bet, as if he has straight draws to one straight he should have draws to the other straight (QTxx).

But if for some miracle reason we know that he raises with that range and we indeed has 25% against that range*, we need 19% for call so it's an easy call.

*= if you just put that range to that board to an equity calculator, it might not be the true equity as it doesn't define preflop range. Without defining preflop range equity calculators assume hands like 2223r are in 22xx range. Which is definitely not in his true range.

Shoving river 100%.

I would bet 13 BB (pot bet) at the turn... a lot of players and there are a lot of cards which I do not want to see on the river.
On the river - 1/2 pot bet/call.
In your situation - easy call (on the river)