[Highlight] - Don't turn showdown value hands into bad value bets

Originally posted by double2
I think this is a quite optimistic assumption, I think villain's check the flop a fair amount with the ocasional KQ/AQ or overpair, which very quickly turns our "value bet" into crap. So, our betting range on the turn should look a lot more polarized than on the flop. I hope it's clear why.

Yes but the flop bet is still folding his air so it is profitable even if he x/c AQ,KQ, right?

Originally posted by double2
Question for you guys: what type of bluffs should we have on this river for the 3rd barrel? AcXc? 78s? KJ?

78s we should not barrel turn because board is paird.
KJs we should not barrel turn because we did not pick up equity on turn
so AcXc is best to barrel 3 streets

Originally posted by double2
Pre flop I think there's not much to talk about. I don't think we have enough reasons to 4bet for value, so it's just a standard call.

20% 3bet is enough reason to value 4b/c imo. Sample size isn't huge but if he's 3betting this much overall, its very likely he has a wide sb vs bu 3bet range and 4b/c 99 is gonna be +EV whether he 5bet a lot, or folds to 4b a lot.

Whereas postflop flatting with 99 hero is going to be giving up a lot of equity on bad flops (basically all flops with overcards which I believe is over 70% of flops, hero has no idea where he is at and has to just pray to get to SD and win)

Thank you, double2, for highlighting the hand! Interesting thoughts on the flop. We are probably ahead there, but there are not many worse hands that are calling. So, with betting 33%-40% of pot we actually want 88-66, 5x, 4x to call and we want to get rid of AT, AJ, AK and KJ (but if he calls those, we are still ahead of his calling range with more than 50% of equity). Since it's a 3bet pot, with the sizing I made, I probably wont be ahead of his calling range, so my bet is not a value bet anymore and it can't be a bluff bet because there are no better hands folding.

If I'm right with the above, do you think that we can't value bet thinly on the turn because we wont get calls from 88-66, 4x, AT, AJ, AK, KJ anymore, right? What about betting the turn even smaller (something like 20-25%), considering it as a thin value, protection and some sort of a blocking bet?

Originally posted by double2
Question for you guys: what type of bluffs should we have on this river for the 3rd barrel? AcXc? 78s? KJ?

Since we want to polarize our betting range on the turn and our opponent's range is quite condensed, I think that probably all of the Ax hands we bet the flop with are weak enough to go into our betting range on the turn, especially considering they block AQ.

Our 3-barrel for value will likely look something like this:
AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo

And then our bluff 3-barrel could look a bit like this:
AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,87s,76s,AJo

And then our turn check-back range will be mostly PP bluff-catchers, some air and occasionally AQ. Do you guys think that's reasonable against this opponent?

Also do you guys think we should be 3-barrelling KQ on any river card, or are there some river cards we'd prefer to check back on? Maybe T & J?

Or since our opponent's turn calling range is uncapped, would you prefer checking back KQ on a blank? Or do you think there's enough value we can get from forcing a PP to bluff-catch us on a blank run-out?

Originally posted by bonecore

Originally posted by double2
I think this is a quite optimistic assumption, I think villain's check the flop a fair amount with the ocasional KQ/AQ or overpair, which very quickly turns our "value bet" into crap. So, our betting range on the turn should look a lot more polarized than on the flop. I hope it's clear why.

Yes but the flop bet is still folding his air so it is profitable even if he x/c AQ,KQ, right?

Hmm, if he check/calls a fair amount of those then we should be mostly checking 99 here. But yeah, if we bet small it's not a huge deal.

Originally posted by metza

Originally posted by double2
Pre flop I think there's not much to talk about. I don't think we have enough reasons to 4bet for value, so it's just a standard call.

20% 3bet is enough reason to value 4b/c imo. Sample size isn't huge but if he's 3betting this much overall, its very likely he has a wide sb vs bu 3bet range and 4b/c 99 is gonna be +EV whether he 5bet a lot, or folds to 4b a lot.

Whereas postflop flatting with 99 hero is going to be giving up a lot of equity on bad flops (basically all flops with overcards which I believe is over 70% of flops, hero has no idea where he is at and has to just pray to get to SD and win)

If indeed villain is 3betting 20% we can indeed 4bet for value. But since he is probably depolarized and will call 4bets it's actually not as good as it might seem. And of course we have low sample on him, so I wouldn't be looking to 4bet/call here with 99, but it's okay to do it.

Originally posted by Alleen86
Thank you, double2, for highlighting the hand! Interesting thoughts on the flop. We are probably ahead there, but there are not many worse hands that are calling. So, with betting 33%-40% of pot we actually want 88-66, 5x, 4x to call and we want to get rid of AT, AJ, AK and KJ (but if he calls those, we are still ahead of his calling range with more than 50% of equity). Since it's a 3bet pot, with the sizing I made, I probably wont be ahead of his calling range, so my bet is not a value bet anymore and it can't be a bluff bet because there are no better hands folding.

If I'm right with the above, do you think that we can't value bet thinly on the turn because we wont get calls from 88-66, 4x, AT, AJ, AK, KJ anymore, right? What about betting the turn even smaller (something like 20-25%), considering it as a thin value, protection and some sort of a blocking bet?

Well, it is for sure better than betting half pot. Even so, I believe it's still not a good option for several reasons. For instance, I don't think villain has enough combos of hands that he is check/folding. Other problem is that most of you range now wants to bet bigger in my opinion, we want to start betting big with AQ/KQ and draws.

Originally posted by Drew94

Originally posted by double2
Question for you guys: what type of bluffs should we have on this river for the 3rd barrel? AcXc? 78s? KJ?

Since we want to polarize our betting range on the turn and our opponent's range is quite condensed, I think that probably all of the Ax hands we bet the flop with are weak enough to go into our betting range on the turn, especially considering they block AQ.

Our 3-barrel for value will likely look something like this:
AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo

And then our bluff 3-barrel could look a bit like this:
AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,87s,76s,AJo

And then our turn check-back range will be mostly PP bluff-catchers, some air and occasionally AQ. Do you guys think that's reasonable against this opponent?

Also do you guys think we should be 3-barrelling KQ on any river card, or are there some river cards we'd prefer to check back on? Maybe T & J?

Or since our opponent's turn calling range is uncapped, would you prefer checking back KQ on a blank? Or do you think there's enough value we can get from forcing a PP to bluff-catch us on a blank run-out?

Your bluff range on river is way too loose, villain would have a snap call with every bluffcatcher. We need a ratio of 1 bluff to 2 value hands, or less. Also, I believe that hands like AJ/AT will probably check the flop, don't see a reason to bet those, we have already plenty of available bluff hands, better to check those that have some showdown value and dominate villain's check/fold range.

KQ should be able to value bet river on blanks. on a J is a check for sure. On a T I'm on the fence.

Originally posted by double2
Your bluff range on river is way too loose, villain would have a snap call with every bluffcatcher. We need a ratio of 1 bluff to 2 value hands, or less. Also, I believe that hands like AJ/AT will probably check the flop, don't see a reason to bet those, we have already plenty of available bluff hands, better to check those that have some showdown value and dominate villain's check/fold range.

KQ should be able to value bet river on blanks. on a J is a check for sure. On a T I'm on the fence.

Thanks, I was looking for input from you...

Ok so two questions from me,

what about if we have 33? and say 77? They still need protection but less combos of hands we can beat

If we bet bet our qx hands on flop turn and check our give ups, sdv and pockets then we are capped when we bet flop, check turn to weak hands that hate facing a bet. Facing river bet, we can either call top of range like tt/99, check a hand like qt on turn to bet check bet/call or overfold and accept villian isn't capable to exploit it, what are your views?

Originally posted by mattyvx
Ok so two questions from me,

what about if we have 33? and say 77? They still need protection but less combos of hands we can beat

Those hands, on one hand have a worse equity when called but on the other need even more protection. I'd probably those two hands as well, specially 77. The fact that we have a back door straight with both is not irrelevant also.

Originally posted by mattyvx
Ok so two questions from me,

what about if we have 33? and say 77? They still need protection but less combos of hands we can beat

If we bet bet our qx hands on flop turn and check our give ups, sdv and pockets then we are capped when we bet flop, check turn to weak hands that hate facing a bet. Facing river bet, we can either call top of range like tt/99, check a hand like qt on turn to bet check bet/call or overfold and accept villian isn't capable to exploit it, what are your views?

If we are talking about "ideal" players, BU should check back some strong hands on the flop, and same for the turn. In practice I believe it's not a problem, it's not like BU will face an overbet jam on the river after he checks the turn (which would be a very good adjusment for BB to make if BU is very capped).

(which would be a very good adjusment for BB to make if BU is very capped).

nice adjustment that's what i was thinking about, maybe i'm wrong but i expect that to be the case as a population read <25nl maybe even 50nl for BTN not having many/if any super strong hands in their checking range unless they bink a set OTR