Originally posted by datsmahname
Homework!
[*] Create a new thread in the appropriate forum.
[*] Start the title with "Counting Outs:...."
One hand is ready ♠_grin:.
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Hello Everyone,
Some of you may know that I lost my internet connection on Wednesday during the Basic coaching. I've finally replaced the broken hardware and do not expect this problem to persist. Sorry for the delay in getting back to you guys.
I'll see everyone tomorrow and/or Wednesday!
Hey Fermina,
You're very welcome. I'm glad that you liked it. I'll definitely check out your Homework post.
Hey datsmahname,
do you remember that AJ v SB spot from todays coaching? I'd like to discuss this a bit more, cause you said that you dont recommend raising for a free card here, and I'd like to understand it why. Usually Im thinking as the following:
SB could donkbet with two type of hands:
- either it is a strong made hand wherewith he wants to bet3bet and take the initiative and does not want to see you checking back
- or its a weak made hand or a draw like sort of a semi bluff and he wants you to fold, but if you dont he still has some chance to win the pot. Sometimes its just air, a scan donk just to see if you have something serious.
If you raise the flop, you get information about his range, if he doesnt 3bet you he most likely has a weak hand (ofc this depends on the villains image, I dont remember the actual stats here, I assume an average loose passive limper here) against which you are ahead maybe (Im thinking on FD/SD-s here) so you want to get to the showdown and/or get your backdoor outs cheaply. If he 3bets, and you are unimproved on the turn, you can fold easily cause you are certainly behind. These all cost you 2 or 3 SB while calling down is always 3SB and you dont know what you are up against. If you just call down you cant narrow down his range too much.
hey kav, sure I'll post it along with that AK hand I mentioned. I'll put the link here when I do. I think i'll do hand postings after tonight coaching, possibly Thursday morning.
There are lots of reasons why i don't prefer to raise the flop donk bet with AJ here. We cannot fold to a 3-bet with good overcards and back door draws once the pot size goes way up and can't fold most turns if he bets again so our cost to draw has actually gone up and his range is now stronger. Seeing the river against his flop donk/3-bet barrel is as expensive as calling down which gives us much more information.
His bet on the flop can be lots of hands and even when he 3-bets it can still be draws.
If he donk bets flops then he's much more likely than other players to donk bet the turn. Raising for a free card may not work, but we might not want it to work. I mentioned some about this on the coaching. We can be ahead, and on the turn if no draws have come in then most of his draws are now quite far behind. If we just call the flop then he has to decide if he wants to bet the turn with a draw that now has ~25% equity rather than closer to 50%. Sometimes he's even leading flops with much weaker hands that would simply fold.
We know we're behind his hand range when he leads the flop. We missed the board and that board hits his range, once he decides to take the betting lead we can see ourselves as being behind. So raising is clearly not a value play. We can rule out raising for this reason.
I also don't recommend bluffing with our hand since we have SD value to go with our marginal draw. Hands better than ours won't fold often at all so raising as a bluff isn't that great..
So when we look at the reasons why we might want to raise (bluff, value, drawing cheap aka freecard) in my mind none of these reasons to raise stand up in that situation.
I feel that there's some value in providing my results over decent samples, so here are my most recent 50k hands of play.
Fixed Limit Beginner Coaching Update:
Later today PS members can Join our weekly Basic Coaching.
- This week we'll review a submission from our first Homework Assignment.
- In conjunction, we'll discuss counting and discounting outs on the flop.
- As always, all members will get their weekly dose of Basic Strategy with yours truly.
The full 1 hr Live Coaching begins at 16:00 ET, 22:00 CET. You can find our link to the live stream on the PokerStrategy main page or here once the coaching has started.
Okay, lets assume he plays his draws and small pairs passively after a raise, is the raise for a free card then OK ?
If he plays these hands passively after a raise, it helps our case a little but only in the sense that a freecard play is likely to work against those draws and marginal made hands.
These facts alone can't confirm that a freecard play is the line that wins us the most money and its all about the money.
If he checks the turn with all of those draws and small pairs then taking a free card may actually tend to work against us since we're giving a free card to those draws.
We may not need to raise to have the option of taking a free card. Sometimes he will check on the turn even if we just call. Now, in general its more likely that he'll check if we raise... but paying less is a significant factor.
In other words, it also depends on how he plays with his hand range when we just call. If he bets wide on the turn and shows down light then we preserve a lot of implied odds by just calling. If he checks sometimes this gives us useful information, like maybe hes more likely to check his draws in which case we can sometimes actually value bet.
Raising also gives our opponent information. If we do actually improve he's not likely to make big mistakes against us. Sometimes he'll make a tight fold seeing himself as behind with some of those weaker SD value hands.
Yeah if he folds something that is better than an A high, we can probably bluff him out then. Or if he checks the turn and we bet he might check raise us with his strong made hands. Everything is possible, but not everything is likely. It depends on the player type, and IMO typical LPA-s who have a limping range from sb and donk with A high or a draw arent usually those who fold against a turn raise, or 3betting their draws. You cant valuecut yourself against a callingstation or a maniac, because they cant fold. And if we assume, that we are behind against his donk range on that flop, means we have to improve, otherwise its -EV for us to go to showdown. How could the free card help the villain if he is already ahead ? Help him with what ? To win less ? This is the main thing why I dont understand your reasoning. We can see 2 cards by the cheapest way (providing the line works), the only question is that do we need those cards ? If not, then we should raise for value. If you put more air and draws into his range, than you raise for value, if he has more made hands, you want to keep the pot low and see 2 cards as cheap as possible. Dont you ?
Those are good questions. I would encourage you to work through them. Consider our opponents equity on the flop when we're ahead vs his equity on the turn when we're ahead. Look for contradictions in your strategy that new information may uncover.
Hey Dats,
before the coaching today could you please explain your HUD layout ? I tried to figure it out on the last coaching which number corresponds for which stat, but I got lost in it in the end.
hey Kav, Just finding this post now. If you're looking for useful stats you can find them on page 1 post 3. When I'm creating a layout I try to group things so that if two stats are used together they're close in the HUD. I also use the last 3 rows for each postflop street and the columns for each stat on that street. I hope that helps!
I didnt mean this dats. I'd like to know which number refers on your HUD to VPIP, PFR etc.. you know its hard to figure it out cause there are no prefixes on your HUD but a shitload of numbers, and IDK if you could interpret it if you would see it from the point of view of a player who sees your HUD for the first time. Without prefixes for them its just a table of numbers. The best would be if you could make a screenshot about it and paste it into paint and would point to each stat with arrows and labels so that it would be clear for anyone which is which.
Hey Kav, thx for the post. Most of those stats don't become very relevant during the coaching. I usually have smaller samples on my opponents. Maybe the best thing for me to do would be to create a new HUD for the 6-max coaching (I have one for full ring 
). Thing is, I'm changing my HUD all the time. In any case, I'll make a better point to identify which stats I do use when I'm using them.
Fixed Limit Advanced Coaching Update:
Later today PS members with silver status or higher will be able to join our weekly Advanced Coaching.
- The monthly Podcast Video is now Live.
- Pushing back the Small Blind Open Raising presentation.
- As always, all members will get their weekly dose of advanced short handed analysis with yours truly.
The full 1.5 hr Live Coaching begins at 16:00 ET, 22:00 CET. You can find our link to the live stream on the PokerStrategy main page or here once the coaching has started.
Fixed Limit Beginner Coaching Update:
Later today PS members can Join our weekly Basic Coaching.
- Turn and River play will be the focus of this Coaching.
- Readings: How to Play on the Turn and River
- As always, all members will get their weekly dose of Basic Strategy with yours truly.
The full 1 hr Live Coaching begins at 16:00 ET, 22:00 CET. You can find our link to the live stream on the PokerStrategy main page or here once the coaching has started.
Hi Dats, please show me the position of your basic stats (VPIP,PFR,AF,WTS,W$SD,handcount) on your HUD today at least, I suppose these dont change very often, and its quite bad not to have these when you have it. Or you should play without a HUD as well, but please dont keep torturing me by not letting me know the information you use for your decisions. ♦
Hey Kav 
No torture intended. If you remind me today I'll mention them.
We're looking at small blind open raising strategy today. I'm actually looking forward to it, but theres lots of content so I may need the reminder.
cya then
Fixed Limit Advanced Coaching Update:
Later today PS members with silver status or higher will be able to join our weekly Advanced Coaching.
- Today we'll take an indepth look at Small Blind Open Raising strategy.
- Our coaching will begin with a 15-20 minute presentation followed by live play.
- As always, all members will get their weekly dose of advanced short handed analysis with yours truly.
The full 1.5 hr Live Coaching begins at 16:00 ET, 22:00 CET. You can find our link to the live stream on the PokerStrategy main page or here once the coaching has started.