triple merge river checkraise

Ohh the dreaded triple merge river check-raise.

Looks ok.

One question,

Is he the type of player who is gonna be going for thin value and then bluff-catching with stuff like Tx, JJ, QQ, KJ, or is he more likely to check-back and/or bet/fold despite the fact he might call a river bet with these hands.

Really just a question of whether betting is higher EV than check-raising which depends on villain. He might call a lot wider than he'd bet even if he's capable of going for thin value etc.

TX isn't betting all the time, he may/may not have JJ/QQ in his range.
I think KX is almost always betting cos my hand looks so much like QQ and JJ.

What if he jams

i think its fine, very small sizing otr tho no?

I don't like KQ for a flop check, I don't think it's strong enough to play it as a slowplay (like right here on the river you can barely check raise). But if are exploiting some read then that's fine.

River XR is good but go bigger like pot sized raise, $106. Or even bigger. You need to rep Tx turned into a bluff.

Really just a question of whether betting is higher EV than check-raising which depends on villain. He might call a lot wider than he'd bet even if he's capable of going for thin value etc

Don't bet river yourself, that's silly. What are we supposed to be bluffing with? How is he ever calling a bluffcatcher there?

Originally posted by ihufa
What if he jams

hes not bluffing we fold we lost hand anyway?

Originally posted by ihufa
What if he jams

I think 'wiiiiiiii induced some spew' and snap call?

dont think he ever jams, 55 bets turn and even A3 is just gonna call.

If he does we have a bluffcatcher, so you either make a read or call at the appropriate freq to not allow him to bluff.

Originally posted by lnternet
Don't bet river yourself, that's silly. What are we supposed to be bluffing with? How is he ever calling a bluffcatcher there?

I don't think this is silly. I think it is dependant on levels, also history, and above all your opponent's river tendencies.

If you are taking a game theory approach there are some hands you are check-raising or check-calling flop even if you cbet with them the majority of the time. You can have bluffs by the river.

If villain is good I don't think he should take OOP flop floats out of your range either on such a board. You can have bluffs by the river.

Villain has a high turn barrel as discussed, therefore only very specific hands might be checking back the turn. Usually medium showdown value.

If we find ourself in a situation where we are good very often, villain likely has a worse made hand but will check back the river instead of going for thin value, we should bet for value ourselves. It's not necessarily relevant whether villain is good enough to fold, we are freerolling against this type of opponent.

This is why my questions were geared towards the type of villain our hero was facing. You will notice I made no suppositions regarding the actual best play, just posted some hypothetical scenarios that might aid analysis.

Nope, Internet is right.

Why would I c/c nothing OOP when I could just cbet myself? I would never do that with a gutshot

Originally posted by mbml
Nope, Internet is right.

Why would I c/c nothing OOP when I could just cbet myself? I would never do that with a gutshot

If I'm playing against an opponent who assumed I had value every time I float the flop and then bet the river (internet) you can bet your ass I'm gonna take this line as a bluff. You are basically admitting your flop check-range here is super unbalanced by posting this. Probably fine at 200nl though.

When playing slightly better opponents you need to take lines they play the most poorly against, not the most "standard" lines. In fact, if you are mixing up your play (as you should be against a better opponent) you can be calling/check-raising with hands like JQ, AJ a percentage of the time on the flop even if your standard is to cbet.

I basically said something akin to "if villain is NEVER betting but SOMETIMES calling, you should bet for value". That's a hypothetical statement, and also a no-brainer.

I didn't make any supposition about what the best play is, so how can I be right or wrong, or "silly" (internet)?

Gonna take my posts elsewhere, gl.

I agree with w34z3l. I like leading that river, but ofc it makes sense only if we have something like AJ, AQ in our flop c/c range. Not really sure do we need c/r range on the river at all. KQ is the nuts vs his range most likely, but when he notices it, he could take that line with some nutted hands and jam the river with super high frequency. I think we don't wanna be in that spot with KQ. Even if he doesn't, betting still might be higher +EV because he will check back that river very often.

the alleged bots have actually been playing with OOP floats as the preflop aggressor, check calling hands like J9 on this texture. If we do have a well constructed flop XC range then betting river is cool.

My base assumption would be that people don't have enough river air here to value bet KQ though. But I could be wrong, maybe you can rep air here and get a call from Ahi or 77.

well i agree with what you said about balanced c/c range but would you really bother to construct such a range vs a normal TAG?