J6o

Hey IW ♦

My opinion on this is sadly that its hard not to tihnk he has an ace here given his 3b preflop. of course he could be 3betting you with JT and other stuff like that. but i think that board really hits his range. and since the T on the river any 9 or A beats us. Im pretty sure b/f is the correct play here if he does have a two pair like JQ , KQ , JT, KJ and he gets afraid of the inevitable Ace.

I would probably do x/f here myself. but b/f looks much better here , as i see it its the only way to get the pot off two pair or a (busted flush draw is most likely his weakest holding and I dont think he would bluff raise that on the river but i may be wrong)

if you have 100 hands on him ill bet he knows your style too and maybe thinks its worth a bluff raise because you arent the biggest lag ever sorry to say ♦

only hands i can see is a better two pair and the Ace in his holdings.

b/f is my conclusion. no x/f

God that is such a terrible river

This may actually be very close to a x/f becasue what are we value betting against?

K8s, K7s, K5s and Q8s that 3-bet us pre? Every other hand in a 30% BB vs SB 3-betting range which doesn't fold the turn has us beaten here.

This is a HU pot so 2-pair isn't folding and just about everything else in his range either isn't calling (like 33 with a diamond) or has outdrawn us (JT, Ax).

The only problem with x/f is that it allows single diamond pairs to bluff us off our hand if he's on that level, which he should be if he's been a 3/6 reg. The problem with our line is that we'll have almost no x/r'ing range on the river (Unless we were going for a really wierd bluff raise with A-high on the turn and therefore can x/r our hidden straight on the river)

The bottom line is that if you believe you can be balanced enough to check and him not take advantage of you by betting 100% of his range on the river then you can safely x/f. If you can't you probably just have to b/f to protect yourself and try and win the pot.

Unfortunately when I ran the figures vs his river betting range we have about 11% equity if he bets all bricked pairs with a diamond and J8/Q8... so I think we're just shy of a check/call especially given he probably won't turn all thsoe hands into bluffs