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Shooting at NL500!!!

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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

pokerstars just went down for a bit... so im back here to make a post

heres the chart for the month for about 14k hands... realised my red line was pretty bad somewhere around the 8k hand mark and went to find out why and spotted some things and made changes in my ranges pre flop and on the flop which can be seen in this thread >>>

6max Pre Flop Strategy

things have been pretty brutal, i counted i lost 28 est 100+bb pots where

1. set under set or FH vs better FH or quads, 2p+ AI

2. AQ+ JJ+ PF AI

3. overpair AI on dry board

4. monster draw or FD AI flop (maybe 4 times)

5. dont know what else i missed

and lost 40 pots between 40-90bb, with

1. overpairs top pair

2. failed bluffs

3. calling down with TP against pre flop wide range that barreled 3 streets and they hit 2p+ trips flush straight or beat me in the first place

and won 26 est 100+bb pots AI with the same stuff, and won 60 est 40-90bb pots.

i wonder, how should the ratios be like? i should be winning more 100bb pots than losing? smaller pots like 40-90bb i should be winning more than i lose? i could make sense to still go AI even if we are behind because EV is higher than the option of folding at that point in time so we could have a profitable player losing more 100bb+ pots than he is winning, maybe because he makes extra money from the smaller pots and pre flop and flop folds?

most of the money is being lost in the BB, so if we consider hands that are not in BB, every hand we choose to play should be positive right? and it also makes sense over large samples we win more pots of every size, but how much more should we win than lose? i guess this kind of shows the real edge we have? maybe we go all in for 1000 pots and win 510 and lose 490? or win 520 and lose 480? anyone can provide some details on this?


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

took like about... 15-20 minutes just to download the pokerstars update. probably many people are connecting to the server to download the update now and the tables are lagging pretty badly. checked my connection on speedtest and its perfect, facebook and everything else is fine too, just pokerstars so i guess for the next 1-2 hours ill be doing something else... maybe play on full tilt?

this is how my typical day looks like, and ill track how it changes into the future. right now my focus is mainly on poker, and helping out my friend with his forex company.

12:00 - wake up, pop 2 10mg ritalin, drink berocca vitamin C orange flavor, 10-15 tablets of kyoto chlorella

12:15 - go downstairs for a quick lunch, im eating first because ritalin causes gastric which can affect the mindset and causes discomfort. i usually prefer to eat like 1-2 hours after i wake up and the hunger pangs sets in, but have adjusted to eat immediately after i wake up. i have a 30 minute time frame for ritalin to kick in before i do effective work.

12:45 - back home, fire up tables and start playing poker. im thinking how i can eat faster and start earlier. i made an arrangement with my dad to buy food for me, but he has a very big ego and time management problem, he would be slow to leave the house, buy wrongly or refuse to buy, and after that make requests like asking me to pay the bill and give allowance (which i already discussed with him multiple times and already paying part of the bills). there is no one else that can help for now, maybe hire a maid? but that would cost money and in singapore i think i need a proper declared income to hire a maid? not too sure about that. even if i have a maid will she be able to buy quickly so that i can eat?

or maybe there is a better solution, there is this instant food pack, but still i have to bite, is there something thats tasty and liquid that i can just swallow down in less than 1 minute?

16:00 - take the 2nd dose of 2X 10mg ritalin, in between 12:45 to 16:00 i have 3:15, but effectively i think i only work closer to 2:45, with 20-30minutes wasted going to the toilet frequently. i think i go to the toilet maybe every 15mins, and each trip lasts maybe 2mins so thats about 10minutes wasted every hour. i have been drinking alot of water since young and it has been like this for a long time. getting a piss container is not the solution because i pee so much everyday and i dont like pissing in my room. i drink about 4-6 litres water everyday, i went for check ups before and this is normal. i am trying to reduce my water intake and maybe change some conditions. my aircon is usually on, maybe that causes me to feel more thirsty? ritalin also causes thirst but thats something i cannot change. i also have my chat clients like skype and line on, and check my emails maybe every 1-2 hours or so, it is not interrupting my plan too much but i wonder if i increase the checking time of emails to 4 hours is a good idea? the cons is that important emails from skill or stars get delayed, but i am not guaranteed a definite reply time anyway and that extra 4 hours is probably not critical.

18:00 - gastric starts to set in and i have to take dinner, my mum usually calls 90+% of the time (unless she is out with her friends) asking me what i want to eat and buy back. rush for dinner for 10mins and back to work. i dont like the food that contains bones especially the small fragmented bones and the curve bones where special effort is needed to take out the meat. i guess i will just go for the breast portion instead.

20:00 - ritalin is fully faded but somehow i am still able to continue focusing, not sure why maybe its already an attitude.

22:00 - focus drops, still can work but at this time i focus my effort on other things that require less brain power, for example designing the pre flop hand ranges on my excel sheet, analysing forex data for my friend, writing macros on auto hot key. i am intending to write a macro that is able to play for me. right now i am successful in writing one that opens up pokerstars and then log in for me (of course that compromises on my passwords and disabling of the RSA key and i stopped this). i am in the process of writing the macro that can raise the desired hands while unopened ( of course this does not take into account table dynamics that affect ranges but this can be incorporated at a much later stage). the purpose of this macro is for me to pan out my thoughts in a logical systematic way where i can look at it like a floor plan and point out where the mistakes are.
i have had some experience writing macros for maplestory, where my macro was capable of automatically replenishing health and mana, switch random channels/maps, logging in and out at predetermined times, commence different attacks, randomize movement. that was when i was about 16-17 years old in around 2006, with no prior computer skills, i basically ripped everything off an existing bot (i think it was meant for diablo), studied the terms and rewrote everything. now i have some knowledge of python, competent knowledge of excel and some autohotkey knowledge and probably will have to learn a more basic programming language.

i also wrote a statistical analysis spread sheet on MT4 candlesticks which is used by a SME 500 singapore company in their trading strategy.

i went on to further make spread sheets testing the results of each trader to find the flaws in their strategy, show some essential data to match their said strategy, (for example a strategy that depends on the monthly candle should match the number of pips in that month(maybe 200-300) and that time frame(4-10 days) and that risk profile(percentage determined based on strategy))

i am currently in the process of analyzing tick data to study patterns to find how each currency pair behaves, and find patterns that coincide with a human behavior that i can exploit.

i am intending to write a bot that can analyse these data and find that relationship to human behavior by matching the times there were significant changes to news release from different sites like bloomberg and forex factory, and then coming up with a range of entry and exit points based on multiple time frame analysis and execute trades on its own. its supposed to be able to study constantly changing data and factor in variance in news timings, and find out how much each news affect each pair. for example

1. every news by bernanke causes a large change in currency fluctuation of XXX pips 2-3 hours before and 2 hours later.

2. every interest rate change by the bank of more than 0.1% affects the pair 30mins before, and every 0.1% change causes an estimated 50pip movement. so we can expect a 500pip movement for a 1.0% change or something like that.

02:00 - very tired already and go to sleep.


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

post removed for privacy reasons


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dooleslovs
Joined: 17.02.2011

hi,

Ritalin? Is it legal? Does doctor prescribed it to you for some reason?


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ZhiCheng
Joined: 04.10.2008

dude, u must be some kind of a crazy robot

keep up the efectivity, inspiring =)


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Originally posted by dooleslovs
hi,

Ritalin? Is it legal? Does doctor prescribed it to you for some reason?

Yes ritalin is legal and I have a prescription for it for adhd. And even if you obtain it from illegal sources your just get a fine, and in the past 5 years no one has been fined in my country yet. And anyway I have a legal prescription. You might want to try it hehe


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Originally posted by ZhiCheng
dude, u must be some kind of a crazy robot

keep up the efectivity, inspiring =)

Thanks bro! I think I might be moving even faster haha if possible


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killerslo
Joined: 22.06.2011

maybe you should start getting up at 8am, you would feel much better/rested and your mindset would be better too


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TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by ZhiCheng
dude, u must be some kind of a crazy robot

keep up the efectivity, inspiring =)

Effectivity can be achieved without Ritalin, just saying ;) Solid work ethics, tough and constant self evaluation, repeating cycles of self-improvement etc. >>> any (prescribed) drugs.
As with everything, you need to do the whole calculation (comparable to full cost accounting in a business) and not focus on short term effects. Side effects or those drugs in the long run are obviously not beneficial.

I think this is everything but inspiring, I wouldn't have posted on the topic of Methylphenidate but if that inspires people, we have a serious problem imho.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Originally posted by TwiceT

Originally posted by ZhiCheng
dude, u must be some kind of a crazy robot

keep up the efectivity, inspiring =)

Effectivity can be achieved without Ritalin, just saying ;) Solid work ethics, tough and constant self evaluation, repeating cycles of self-improvement etc. >>> any (prescribed) drugs.
As with everything, you need to do the whole calculation (comparable to full cost accounting in a business) and not focus on short term effects. Side effects or those drugs in the long run are obviously not beneficial.

I think this is everything but inspiring, I wouldn't have posted on the topic of Methylphenidate but if that inspires people, we have a serious problem imho.

agreed, that's what I was telling him all along. Not worth risking health for some short-term wealth gains


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supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

unfortunately he has ADHD, its a real problem and one of the ways to manage this problem is ritalin


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TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by supeyrio
unfortunately he has ADHD, its a real problem and one of the ways to manage this problem is ritalin

One thing to have ADHD and being diagnosed having it [even though if you read about it you might agree with me that overall waaaay too many people these days get diagnosed with this disorder; I think there is an industry making quite some money out of this ...] another to publicly promote Ritalin.

What about the trading bot? That's more interesting :P Wayne poker if you can exploit behavior with your bot and write analysis tools for SGP companies! Sounds like serious moniez to me.


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Originally posted by killerslo
maybe you should start getting up at 8am, you would feel much better/rested and your mindset would be better too

It depends whether you're a morning or an evening person.

You could however cut down your sleep a bit to increase your energy levels - generally they will be higher if you sleep 7-9 hours than if you sleep 10 hours (to know for sure you'd have to test each duration for a week or two consistently).

As for the food shopping, there are services out there that deliver you food frequently (not prepared food, but actual groceries), so you might want to look into that :).


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

@twicet - Yea I'm trying to find the delicate balance between using that drug and maintaining my health for a better ability to work. The bot is coming along... Will update you on Skype if you are interested. Hehe...

@Mbml- taking your advice into consideration. Ritalin still helps loads but not at the cost of too much health.

@schnitzel - sleep is a challenge because I have a problem falling sleep and waking up, trying to keep to a schedule but it's hard. Definitely improving but still far away from the ideal wake in the morning and sleep at night schedule. Yes I just found a food delivery service and groceries in Singapore and some items are even cheaper than at the supermarket. It's called red mart. But they require like 80 dollars to ship... I guess I'll use it in the future when I'm buying everything for the house.

Just finished 22 full lengths in sengkang swimming complex off ritalin. It's a new record probably for the past 5 years of my life. Played around 2000 hands of poker today. Not too satisfied with that result. Although I had an argument with my dad but that's not an excuse to work less today. I aim to do a total of extra 3000 hands for a total 5000 hands today. I'm playing 4 tables of nl50 doing around 800 hands per hour so that's about 4 hours. Going to sleep before 0200 today and wake at 1200 tomorrow to attend a talk by the ceo or some big shot from tung lok and bread talk. See what i can learn from their beliefs and actions. The last time round I forgot to bring name cards so I'll bring one stack this time round.

Poker wise today I played a little more aggressive because of the anger from the argument from my dad. There are some interesting points though. I increased my normal 20% raise Cb on flop in position to around 30%. Which is essentially increasing my Bluff range by more than 100%, maybe close to 150%. Interestingly I was either getting away with it or not being punished too hard. Not to say that this is a good approach but over aggression seems to be a smaller mistake than folding or calling too much. I recall when I was folding too much my nsd was somewhere around - 7-8 bb/100 but now it's pretty close to 0 maybe - 1-2bb/100 which is essentially the cost of folding. Over aggression is hard to quantify because the SD may be lower but nsd better but either ways it's a clear smaller mistake compared to folding.

Back to ritalin... I guess I'll cut down doses and go off it once in a while and observe and record how my body responds to it and how to achieve the best balance of work quality and health.


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

OK this is not working out so well. I'm so hungry off ritalin and after the swim I think I had like 4-5 meals in 10 hours... But I'm really very hungry.. What should I do? If I don't eat the gastric sets in so bad I curl up on the bed. Gastric medications are not helping.


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thazar
Joined: 14.09.2009

I'd say eat, but eat healthy.


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Originally posted by cutegoldfish
@schnitzel - sleep is a challenge because I have a problem falling sleep and waking up, trying to keep to a schedule but it's hard. Definitely improving but still far away from the ideal wake in the morning and sleep at night schedule. Yes I just found a food delivery service and groceries in Singapore and some items are even cheaper than at the supermarket. It's called red mart. But they require like 80 dollars to ship... I guess I'll use it in the future when I'm buying everything for the house.

I just made a blog post on how to get to sleep earlier - I think what you'll find out will surprise you.

Also, you could try (for falling asleep):

-body scan meditation before sleep
-being off the computer/TV/phone at least an hour before sleep
-writing down your thoughts before sleep

For waking up:

-Sleep As Android / Sleep Cycle (phone apps)
-Scheduling calls / gym sessions in the morning with a personal trainer, or something similar to that
-Practicing waking up - read this article.


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Originally posted by thazar
I'd say eat, but eat healthy.

its hard to eat healthy, but i can make small progressions to eat healthier. its already in the progress, reducing the oily food and increasing the less oily ones.


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

was down like -800 this month at the lowest point and then i got this _biggrin: _biggrin: _biggrin:

i kept looking at otb_baron graph and asked myself how he was able to get such a steady line up, while i was getting something more like a heartbeat and inconsistent results, here is his blog >>> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/174/poker-goals-challenges/destroying-500nl-zoom-minichallenge-1245943/index58.html

so i went to develop a system to play pre flop and flop, and a general plan to play turns and rivers from

1. matthew janda's applications of no limit holdem
2. data analysis of some higher stakes winning players
3. videos from runitonce
4. previous statistics from myself in winning months

and i think i have automated around 98%+ of pre flop decisions and have a sytem to play flops 90+% of the time. which means i will do exactly the same thing if shown the same situation.

not sure how sustainable this is, but we will see.


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Varune
Joined: 24.04.2009

That's one sexy ass graph!

Lets see if you can keep it up!


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